Will 8,000+ clinical trials for innovative drugs be initiated globally in a single year before 2035?
Saúde e medicinaOne-Off8a
Manifold MarketsSem KYCDados de resolução verificadosRazoavelmente calibradoPrevisão da comunidade atual
Não 51.1%
Não 51.1%Previsores
4
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Atualizado há 1 hora
Atrasado24/08/26, 12:00 UTC31/12/34, 23:59 UTC
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Resolves YES if there is strong evidence that the global number of clinical trials initiated for innovative drugs exceeded or equaled 8,000 in any single calendar year before January 1st 2035.
- Resolves NO if there is strong evidence that this threshold was not reached in any calendar year through 2034.
- The primary resolution criterion should be a credible, comparable global dataset or report measuring annual clinical trial starts for innovative drugs, ideally using the same or a substantially similar methodology to the data underlying the 2015–2025 series shown in the source chart.
- If multiple reputable sources disagree, priority should be given to the source with the broadest global coverage and the methodology most comparable to that series.
- A value of exactly 8,000 does count; the reported number must be equal or greater than 8,000.
- [image]https://x.com/DrSamuelBHume/status/2054971619748049044
