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  3. Who will win the 2026 election for California's 51st State Assembly district
Manifold Markets

Who will win the 2026 election for California's 51st State Assembly district

PolíticaOne-OffUS PoliticsEleição6m
Manifold MarketsManifold MarketsSem KYC
Previsão da comunidade atual
Manifold Markets
Rick Zbur (Incumbent) 66.8%
Líder entre 4 opções
Previsores

1

Tipo de pergunta

multiple choice

Metodologia

Play-money forecasting platform

Tipo de fonte

Previsão

Dados do mercado

Atualizado há 8 dias

Desatualizado
25/08/25, 15:0431/12/26, 23:59

Tendências

Resultado24hProbabilidade

Resultado escolhido

Rick Zbur (Incumbent)67%

Regras

Resolution criteria

Manifold Markets
  • Resolves to the option matching the candidate certified by the California Secretary of State as the winner of California State Assembly District 51 in the November 3, 2026 general election (after any recounts/court-ordered adjustments).
  • Primary outcomes do not resolve this market.
  • Verification: California SOS results portal and the final Statement of Vote; LA County Registrar results may be used as corroboration.
  • Links: https://electionresults.sos.ca.gov/ and https://www.sos.ca.gov/elections/prior-elections/statewide-election-results and https://results.lavote.gov/.
  • (sos.ca.gov, sonomacounty.ca.gov)

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Regras

Resolution criteria

Manifold Markets
  • Resolves to the option matching the candidate certified by the California Secretary of State as the winner of California State Assembly District 51 in the November 3, 2026 general election (after any recounts/court-ordered adjustments).
  • Primary outcomes do not resolve this market.
  • Verification: California SOS results portal and the final Statement of Vote; LA County Registrar results may be used as corroboration.
  • Links: https://electionresults.sos.ca.gov/ and https://www.sos.ca.gov/elections/prior-elections/statewide-election-results and https://results.lavote.gov/.
  • (sos.ca.gov, sonomacounty.ca.gov)