Who will be the Democratic nominee, and will they win the 2028 presidential election?
PolíticaOne-OffPolítica dos EUAEleição2a
Manifold MarketsSem KYCDados de resolução verificadosRazoavelmente calibradoPrevisão da comunidade atualSomeone else is the Democratic nominee and that person WINS the presidency 13.6%Líder entre 22 opções
Previsores
10
Tipo de pergunta
multiple choice
Metodologia
Play-money forecasting platform
Tipo de fonte
Previsão
Variação 7d
0.0 pts
Dados do mercado
Atualizado há 4 horas
Desatualizado26/08/26, 11:52 UTC7/11/28, 23:59 UTC
Tendências
Mercados Relacionados
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Conditional on (x) being the 2028 democratic nominee, (x) wins the 2028 presidential election
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Manifold MarketsLA-04 Democratic nominee?
KalshiLA-05 Democratic nominee?
KalshiRegras
This market resolves to the option that correctly identifies the 2028 Democratic presidential nominee and whether they win the 2028 U.S. presidential election.
- Democratic Nominee: The individual who officially secures the Democratic Party's presidential nomination at the 2028 Democratic National Convention (DNC) or is formally certified by the Democratic National Committee to appear on the general election ballot in November 2028.
- Winning the Presidency: The candidate will be treated as having won the 2028 presidential election once there is a clear consensus among major reputable news organizations that they are the president-elect.
- For this purpose, “clear consensus” means the Associated Press has called the race for the candidate and at least two of Reuters, the New York Times, CNN, Fox News, ABC News, CBS News, or NBC News have done the same.
- Resolution Rules:
- Only one option will resolve YES; all other options will resolve NO.
