Previsão da comunidade atual
Reform 40%Líder entre 5 opções
Previsores
18
Tipo de pergunta
multiple choice
Metodologia
Play-money forecasting platform
Tipo de fonte
Previsão
Variação 7d
+4.8 pts
Dados do mercado
Atualizado há 33 minutos
28/04/26, 09:13 UTC31/12/26, 10:06 UTC
Tendências
Mercados Relacionados
Perguntas relacionadas para dar contexto, não uma comparação de contratos equivalentes.
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Manifold MarketsRegras
For nearly two months now, UK polling has had the Conservatives, the Greens, and Labour neck and neck, each sat at around 17%, each having equal claim to being second place after Reform.
- This market resolves YES for whichever party next moves into a clear second place by polling >=5% above every party other than whichever party is in first place, for a period of 14 consecutive days in the Politico Poll of Polls.
- If no party achieves a decisive second place by market close then this will resolve Other.
- If any other party approaches the second place zone I will add them as their own option, i.e. buying Other today will cover you for e.g. the Lib Dems approaching second place.
- Update 2026-04-30 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): - If there is a 4-way tie with no clear second place, the market will not resolve until market close, at which point it resolves Other.
- If two parties are both clearly 5% above the rest but close to each other, the creator will keep the market open until one party clearly takes second place.
Mercados abertos
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Perguntas frequentes
- Quais são as probabilidades atuais de Which UK party will next take a decisive second place in the polls??
- A Manifold Markets cota Reform em 40% em 11 de setembro de 2026.
- Quando Which UK party will next take a decisive second place in the polls? é resolvido?
- Which UK party will next take a decisive second place in the polls? deverá ser resolvido em 31 de dezembro de 2026.
- Como Which UK party will next take a decisive second place in the polls? é liquidado?
- A Manifold Markets liquida este mercado da seguinte forma: For nearly two months now, UK polling has had the Conservatives, the Greens, and Labour neck and neck, each sat at around 17%, each having equal claim to being second place after Reform.