Quais são as probabilidades atuais de After the 2026 New Zealand general election, which parties will form a government??

A Manifold Markets cota Labour em 56% em 29 de outubro de 2026.

After the 2026 New Zealand general election, which parties will form a government?

Manifold MarketsSem KYCDados de resolução verificadosBem calibrado

Previsão da comunidade atual

Labour 56%

Líder entre 10 opções

Previsores

Tipo de pergunta

multiple choice

Metodologia

Play-money forecasting platform

Tipo de fonte

Previsão

Variação 7d

+11.8 pts

Dados do mercado

Atualizado há 23 horas

Desatualizado

22/08/24, 00:03 UTC2/01/27, 07:59 UTC

Tendências

Resultado24hProbabilidade

Regras

Parties with ministers inside cabinet are considered part of forming a government.

Parties who do not have ministers inside cabinet are not considered part of the government for the resolution of this question.
So, in 2020, a similar question would only resolve positively for Labour.
In 2023, it would resolve positively for National, the named outcome, and ACT.
I will add new parties on request from 1 January 2026 if they are officially registered, or as I judge to be worthwhile adding.
Parties included so far are those that ran in both 2020 and 2023.