Quais são as probabilidades atuais de Which organisation will be first to successfully land a human that walks on Mars??

A Manifold Markets cota SpaceX em 78.6% em 25 de outubro de 2026.

Which organisation will be first to successfully land a human that walks on Mars?

Manifold MarketsSem KYCDados de resolução verificadosRazoavelmente calibrado

Previsão da comunidade atual

SpaceX 78.6%

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Previsores

Tipo de pergunta

multiple choice

Metodologia

Play-money forecasting platform

Tipo de fonte

Previsão

Variação 7d

0.0 pts

Dados do mercado

Atualizado há 2 horas

Desatualizado

11/05/24, 17:01 UTC1/01/00, 12:59 UTC

Tendências

Resultado24hProbabilidade

Regras

If there is a joint effort between two organisations (eg spaceX and NASA) I'll resolve to the one that paid for the trip.

For example a spaceX rocket landing on the moon, paid for by the Artemis program, would resolve to NASA (if this market were about the moon.
If an organisation sells tickets, it's the organisation paying for the trip and not the people/organisation buying the tickets.
If they share the cost I'll resolve to the share of the cost the organisations pay.
(https://manifold.markets/embed/Daniel_MC/will-an-optimus-robot-walk-on-mars)