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  1. Mercados de Previsão
  2. Space
  3. Which of these rockets will reach orbit first?
Manifold Markets

Which of these rockets will reach orbit first?

CustomSpaceCiênciaTecnologia3a
Manifold MarketsManifold MarketsSem KYC
Previsão da comunidade atual
Manifold Markets
Nova 15.7%
Líder entre 5 opções
Previsores

5

Tipo de pergunta

multiple choice

Metodologia

Play-money forecasting platform

Tipo de fonte

Previsão

Dados do mercado

Atualizado há 9 dias

Desatualizado
13/02/26, 8:111/01/30, 8:11

Tendências

Resultado24hProbabilidade

Resultado escolhido

Nova16%

Regras

https://x.com/SciGuySpace/status/2022101432066093330?s=20

Manifold Markets
  • The market resolves to whichever rocket achieves orbital velocity first.
  • Resolution is determined by the first successful orbital insertion, defined as reaching a stable orbit around Earth with apogee and perigee both above 100 km altitude.
  • Neutron's first launch is targeted for 2026 (no earlier than Q1), Terran R is scheduled for the second half of 2026, Rocket 4 is planned for summer 2026, and Nova is under development at Cape Canaveral.
  • Resolution will be based on official announcements from the respective companies and confirmed by credible space industry sources (SpaceNews, NASASpaceflight, Space.com, or official company statements).
  • Rocket Lab's Neutron aims to reach orbit on its first flight, a challenging objective for new vehicle architectures.

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Ativos nestes tópicos

BitcoinBTC$65,893.78+2.13%SolanaSOL$71.19+3.28%EthereumETH$1,720.05+2.29%DogecoinDOGE$0.0889+1.00%BNBBNB$617.66+1.30%XRPXRP$1.19+2.88%

Notícias Relacionadas

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Regras

https://x.com/SciGuySpace/status/2022101432066093330?s=20

Manifold Markets
  • The market resolves to whichever rocket achieves orbital velocity first.
  • Resolution is determined by the first successful orbital insertion, defined as reaching a stable orbit around Earth with apogee and perigee both above 100 km altitude.
  • Neutron's first launch is targeted for 2026 (no earlier than Q1), Terran R is scheduled for the second half of 2026, Rocket 4 is planned for summer 2026, and Nova is under development at Cape Canaveral.
  • Resolution will be based on official announcements from the respective companies and confirmed by credible space industry sources (SpaceNews, NASASpaceflight, Space.com, or official company statements).
  • Rocket Lab's Neutron aims to reach orbit on its first flight, a challenging objective for new vehicle architectures.