Quais são as probabilidades atuais de Where will human germline gene editing resulting in a live birth first occur legally??

A Manifold Markets cota China em 71.5% em 27 de outubro de 2026.

Where will human germline gene editing resulting in a live birth first occur legally?

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China 71.5%

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12/05/25, 02:03 UTC2/01/40, 02:55 UTC

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This resolves to the location where the gene editing occurs, which may be different from the location where the baby is born.

Not all answers are mutually exclusive.
For example, if it occurred in a semi-autonomous charter city within the borders of the US, then both answers would resolve YES.
Background reading from Gene Smith for those interested:
https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/DfrSZaf3JC8vJdbZL/how-to-make-superbabies