Manifold MarketsSem KYCDados de resolução verificadosBem calibradoPrevisão da comunidade atualBefore 2037 82.8%Líder entre 12 opções
Previsores
72
Tipo de pergunta
multiple choice
Metodologia
Play-money forecasting platform
Tipo de fonte
Previsão
Variação 7d
0.0 pts
Dados do mercado
Atualizado há 59 minutos
Atrasado30/08/25, 01:51 UTC22/01/36, 00:37 UTC
Tendências
Mercados Relacionados
Perguntas relacionadas para dar contexto, não uma comparação de contratos equivalentes.
Will Donald Trump die or become seriously ill before the end of his term?
Manifold MarketsWill Donald Trump die before Joe Biden?
Manifold MarketsWill Donald Trump die or become seriously ill before the end of his term?
Manifold MarketsWill Donald Trump die before Joe Biden?
Manifold Markets2026 Midterms: Congress Balance of Power?
KalshiTexas Senate winner?
KalshiRegras
This is a cumulative probability market.
- Therefore, for example, if Trump dies in 2027, "the named outcome" and "the named outcome" resolve NO, and "the named outcome", "the named outcome", etc. will all resolve YES.
- Answers will resolve early when time runs out and Trump has not yet died.
- For example, "the named outcome" will resolve NO if Trump has not died and 2026 has begun.
- There may be a delay before resolution to confirm that Trump has not died.
