Manifold MarketsSem KYCDados de resolução verificadosRazoavelmente calibradoPrevisão da comunidade atual2028 41.8%Líder entre 6 opções
Previsores
12
Tipo de pergunta
multiple choice
Metodologia
Play-money forecasting platform
Tipo de fonte
Previsão
Variação 7d
0.0 pts
Dados do mercado
Atualizado há 12 horas
Desatualizado17/04/25, 13:39 UTC5/12/40, 23:59 UTC
Tendências
Mercados Relacionados
Perguntas relacionadas para dar contexto, não uma comparação de contratos equivalentes.
Will a self-identifying atheist be elected president of the United States by 2040?
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Manifold MarketsWill JD Vance be elected President of the United States in 2028?
FutuurWill Gavin Newsom be elected President of the United States in 2028?
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KalshiRegras
Resolution criteria:
- This market will resolve to the earliest year in which a Republican candidate is elected President of the United States after the 2024 election.
- If a Republican is elected in a year not listed among the provided options, the market will resolve to "Other." If no Republican is elected by 2040, the market will resolve to "the named outcome."
Mercados abertos
Politics
POLYMARKETPresidential Election Winner 2028
- JD Vance-0.6pt24%
- Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez13%
- Jon Ossoff12%
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- Volume 24h
- € 691,8 mil
POLYMARKETBrazil Presidential Election
- Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva-6.0pt53%
- Flávio Bolsonaro+5.5pt45%
- Renan Santos-0.3pt1%
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- United Russia (ER)+5.0pt73.3%
- New People (NL)-2.7pt22.8%
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- J.D. Vance50%
- Marco Rubio-0.2pt20%
- Tucker Carlson3%
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- € 603,1 mi
KALSHI2028 Democratic presidential nominee
- Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez-1.0pt16.2%
- Jon Ossoff-2.0pt16.2%
- Gavin Newsom14.1%
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KALSHINew Hampshire Democratic Senate nominee?
- Chris Pappas+1.3pt100%
- Karishma Manzur-1.8pt0%
- Jared Sullivan-0.2pt0%
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Perguntas frequentes
- Quais são as probabilidades atuais de When will a Republican next be elected President of the United States?
- A Manifold Markets cota 2028 em 42% em 8 de setembro de 2026.
- Quando When will a Republican next be elected President of the United States é resolvido?
- When will a Republican next be elected President of the United States deverá ser resolvido em 5 de dezembro de 2040.
- Como When will a Republican next be elected President of the United States é liquidado?
- A Manifold Markets liquida este mercado da seguinte forma: Resolution criteria: