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  3. What will OpenAI do before IPO that is easier as a private company? [Add answers]
Manifold Markets

What will OpenAI do before IPO that is easier as a private company? [Add answers]

Corporate ActionsOne-OffIAUS Politics2a
Manifold MarketsManifold MarketsSem KYC
Previsão da comunidade atual
Manifold Markets
Give substantial equity to the US government 28.1%
Líder entre 4 opções
Previsores

4

Tipo de pergunta

multiple choice

Metodologia

Play-money forecasting platform

Tipo de fonte

Previsão

Dados do mercado

Atualizado ontem

Desatualizado
8/06/26, 21:5031/12/28, 23:59

Tendências

Resultado24hProbabilidade

Resultado escolhido

Give substantial equity to the US government28%

Regras

Options will resolve YES as they happen or NO if they are not reported by the time OpenAI is trading as a public company.

Manifold Markets
  • Things that happened before IPO but were not reported by trusted media sources (WSJ, FT, Reuters, NYT, The Information, etc.) or announced officially will not count.
  • Market resolves N/A if no IPO by the end of 2028.
  • OpenAI says they haven't decided when to go public yet, since there are things they want to do "that are likely easier as a private company".
  • I will judge what things are easier as a private company from my own subjective view and understanding, but if a resolution is controversial i might defer to a frontier LLM.
  • I will N/A added options that i consider to not be relevant to the private/public company question ("GPT-6 releases", "Sam Altman dies", "Trump says the words Obama or Obamacare")

Mercados Relacionados

OpenAI IPO by...?

OpenAI IPO by...?

71,7 mil €
December: 43%PolymarketPOLYMARKET
OpenAI IPO Closing Market Cap

OpenAI IPO Closing Market Cap

27,8 mil €
No IPO by December 31, 2026: 55%PolymarketPOLYMARKET
Anthropic IPO by __?

Anthropic IPO by __?

22,2 mil €
December 31,: 90%PolymarketPOLYMARKET
Manifold Markets

What Month in 2026 Will OpenAI IPO in?

2,5 mil €
June 2026: 0.9%Manifold MarketsMANIFOLD MARKETS
Manifold Markets

What Month in 2026 Will Anthropic IPO in?

1,6 mil €
June 2026: 1.7%Manifold MarketsMANIFOLD MARKETS
Manifold Markets

OpenAI completes an IPO in 2026 and has a market cap of $1 trillion+?

1,4 mil €
Sim: 45.9%Manifold MarketsMANIFOLD MARKETS

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Notícias Relacionadas

Anthropic launches Claude Fable 5 with new safeguardsCrypto NewsFormer Epstein assistant Lesley Groff appears before House panel Crypto NewsEU orders Meta to restore WhatsApp access for rival AI chatbotsCrypto NewsTrump adviser Patrick Witt backs sweeping crypto tax billsCrypto NewsJPMorgan plans longer-running AI agents for corporate workflows Crypto NewsOpenAI Files for IPO, Targets Valuation Up to $850BBlockchain.News

Regras

Options will resolve YES as they happen or NO if they are not reported by the time OpenAI is trading as a public company.

Manifold Markets
  • Things that happened before IPO but were not reported by trusted media sources (WSJ, FT, Reuters, NYT, The Information, etc.) or announced officially will not count.
  • Market resolves N/A if no IPO by the end of 2028.
  • OpenAI says they haven't decided when to go public yet, since there are things they want to do "that are likely easier as a private company".
  • I will judge what things are easier as a private company from my own subjective view and understanding, but if a resolution is controversial i might defer to a frontier LLM.
  • I will N/A added options that i consider to not be relevant to the private/public company question ("GPT-6 releases", "Sam Altman dies", "Trump says the words Obama or Obamacare")