What prediction market will have the most accurate prediction for the Senate midterm election of 2026? (Read Rules)
0.3 pts (24h)PolíticaOne-OffPolítica dos EUAEleiçãoEleições de meio de mandato dos EUA 20268d
Manifold MarketsSem KYCDados de resolução verificadosRazoavelmente calibradoAviso de qualidade dos dadosDados da fonte degradados
Dados de 26 de out. de 2026, 14:53 UTC · política pm-quality-4
Previsão da comunidade atualPolymarket 62.7%-0.3ptLíder entre 3 opções
Previsores
14
Tipo de pergunta
multiple choice
Metodologia
Play-money forecasting platform
Tipo de fonte
Previsão
Variação 7d
+6.1 pts
Dados do mercado
Atualizado há 37 minutos
31/07/26, 09:46 UTC4/11/26, 00:00 UTC
Tendências
Mercados Relacionados
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PredictItRegras
This market will resolve to which prediction is the most accurate based on the formula outlined below.
- For the purposes of this market, the winner of the Senate will be the party that AP declares will hold a majority in the Senate as a result of the 2026 midterms (this includes the tie-breaking vote of the vice president and independent senators who are known to caucus with one party).
- If there is a tie, the market that had the most accurate prediction at 8 PM on the day of the midterms will win.
- The accuracy of a market's forecasts shall be measured using a Linear Decreasing Time-Weighted Brier Score.
- The purpose of this scoring rule is to reward markets that make accurate forecasts earlier in the life of the market, rather than only shortly before the outcome becomes known.
- Markets will be measured once per calendar day.
