What prediction market will have the most accurate prediction for the Senate midterm election of 2026? (Read Rules)
PolíticaOne-OffUS PoliticsEleição1mManifold MarketsSem KYCDados de resolução verificadosRazoavelmente calibradoPrevisão da comunidade atualPolymarket 35.6%Líder entre 3 opções
Previsores
8
Tipo de pergunta
multiple choice
Metodologia
Play-money forecasting platform
Tipo de fonte
Previsão
Variação 7d
0.0 pts
Dados do mercado
Atualizado há 5 horas
Desatualizado31/07/26, 09:46 UTC4/11/26, 00:00 UTC
Tendências
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PredictItRegras
This market will resolve to which prediction is the most accurate based on the formula outlined below.
- For the purposes of this market, the winner of the Senate will be the party that AP declares will hold a majority in the Senate as a result of the 2026 midterms (this includes the tie-breaking vote of the vice president and independent senators who are known to caucus with one party).
- If there is a tie, the market that had the most accurate prediction at 8 PM on the day of the midterms will win.
- The accuracy of a market's forecasts shall be measured using a Linear Decreasing Time-Weighted Brier Score.
- The purpose of this scoring rule is to reward markets that make accurate forecasts earlier in the life of the market, rather than only shortly before the outcome becomes known.
- Markets will be measured once per calendar day.
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Perguntas frequentes
- Quais são as probabilidades atuais de What prediction market will have the most accurate prediction for the Senate midterm election of 2026? (Read Rules)?
- A Manifold Markets cota Polymarket em 36% em 8 de setembro de 2026.
- Quando What prediction market will have the most accurate prediction for the Senate midterm election of 2026? (Read Rules) é resolvido?
- What prediction market will have the most accurate prediction for the Senate midterm election of 2026? (Read Rules) deverá ser resolvido em 4 de novembro de 2026.
- Como What prediction market will have the most accurate prediction for the Senate midterm election of 2026? (Read Rules) é liquidado?
- A Manifold Markets liquida este mercado da seguinte forma: This market will resolve to which prediction is the most accurate based on the formula outlined below.