USA and Russia back to bilateral trading in 2026?
CommoditiesOne-OffPolíticaPolítica dos EUAGeopolíticaRússia / UcrâniaEuropaTítulos e Tesouro2m
Manifold MarketsSem KYCDados de resolução verificadosRazoavelmente calibradoPrevisão da comunidade atualNão 72.5%
Previsores
7
Tipo de pergunta
binary
Metodologia
Play-money forecasting platform
Tipo de fonte
Previsão
Dados do mercado
Atualizado há 56 minutos
Atrasado6/01/26, 23:09 UTC31/12/26, 23:59 UTC
Tendências
Regras
Resolution Criteria
- This market resolves YES if the USA and Russia establish bilateral trade (goods and/or services) in 2026 that was previously prohibited under U.S. sanctions transactions occurring between U.S. and Russian entities in sectors currently restricted, such as energy, defense, financial services, or other sanctioned sectors.
- The market resolves NO if no such new bilateral trade occurs during 2026, or if any resumed trade remains limited to currently exempted categories (e.g., agricultural commodities, enriched uranium under existing licenses, or humanitarian goods).
- Resolution sources: U.S. Treasury Department OFAC sanctions list, U.S. Trade Representative reports, and official trade data from the U.S. Census Bureau.
- Since the February 24, 2022, Russian invasion of Ukraine, the scope and severity of U.S. sanctions and export controls imposed on Russia have expanded significantly.
- U.S. goods and services trade with Russia totaled an estimated $5.2 billion in 2024, down 25.8 percent from 2023, with total goods trade at $3.5 billion.
