US cabinet member exposed as Russian agent by 2040?
PolíticaOne-OffPolítica dos EUARússia / Ucrânia13a
Manifold MarketsSem KYCDados de resolução verificadosRazoavelmente calibradoPrevisão da comunidade atualNão 78.7%
Previsores
14
Tipo de pergunta
binary
Metodologia
Play-money forecasting platform
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Previsão
Dados do mercado
Atualizado há 5 horas
Desatualizado26/11/25, 14:37 UTC31/12/39, 23:59 UTC
Tendências
Regras
Resolves as YES if there is strong evidence that at least one U.S. cabinet‑level official is or was acting as an undisclosed agent of the Russian government, and that this fact is credibly established before January 1st 2040.
- For the purposes of this market:
- “U.S. cabinet‑level official” means a person serving as:
- A Senate‑confirmed head of an executive department (e.g., Secretary of State, Defense, Army, etc.), or
- Any other official formally granted cabinet rank by the President at the time of the relevant conduct.
- “Strong evidence” requires at least one of the following:
