Quais são as probabilidades atuais de Trump wanted by the ICC for war crimes??

A Manifold Markets cota No em 87% em 25 de outubro de 2026.

Quando Trump wanted by the ICC for war crimes? é resolvido?

Trump wanted by the ICC for war crimes? deverá ser resolvido em 31 de dezembro de 2027.

A Manifold Markets liquida este mercado da seguinte forma: Resolution criteria

Manifold MarketsSem KYCDados de resolução verificadosRazoavelmente calibrado

Previsão da comunidade atual

Não 87%

Previsores

Tipo de pergunta

binary

Metodologia

Play-money forecasting platform

Tipo de fonte

Previsão

Dados do mercado

Atualizado há 14 minutos

1/01/26, 16:17 UTC31/12/27, 16:17 UTC

Tendências

Resultado24hProbabilidade

Regras

Resolution criteria

This market resolves YES if the ICC issues an arrest warrant for Donald Trump for war crimes or crimes against humanity.
The market resolves NO if no such warrant is issued by December 31, 2026.
President putin and President Netanyahu who are big friends of Trump already have arrest warrants issued on them by the International Criminal Court for war crimes and crimes against humanity.
With Trump's ongoing strikes, particularly against Venezuela, will he join his friends as a wanted man?
Although the US is not a member of the ICC, other countries have the opportunity to file a case against him and if found guilty, an arrest warrant will be issued.