Manifold MarketsSem KYCDados de resolução verificadosRazoavelmente calibradoPrevisão da comunidade atualKevin Hern 75.4%Líder entre 5 opções
Previsores
7
Tipo de pergunta
multiple choice
Metodologia
Play-money forecasting platform
Tipo de fonte
Previsão
Variação 7d
0.0 pts
Dados do mercado
Atualizado há 15 horas
Desatualizado6/03/26, 06:08 UTC3/01/27, 07:05 UTC
Tendências
Mercados Relacionados
Perguntas relacionadas para dar contexto, não uma comparação de contratos equivalentes.
Will Markwayne Mullin win the Oklahoma general election for US Senate in 2026?
ForecastExIf confirmed, will Markwayne Mullin be DHS Secretary until 19 Jan 2029?
Manifold MarketsWhat will Markwayne Mullin say during Fox News: Saturday in America?
KalshiWhich party will gain most seats in Russian Parliamentary Election?
PolymarketNext French Presidential Election
Polymarket2028 Democratic presidential nominee
KalshiRegras
Resolution Criteria
- The market resolves based on who Who wins the seat in the 2026 Election? not the temporary seat filler.
- President Trump announced on March 5, 2026, that Senator Markwayne Mullin would become the United States Secretary of Homeland Security.
- The appointee must be a registered Oklahoma voter in the Republican party for at least five years and is barred from running for the office in the next special or general election.
- Candidate filing for federal offices is open April 1-3 in Oklahoma.
- Rep. the named outcome is expected to launch a bid for Senate, and Rep. the named outcome is also considering a run for Senate.
Mercados abertos
PoliticsPOLYMARKETWhich party will gain most seats in Russian Parliamentary Election?
- United Russia (ER)+6.0pt82.2%
- New People (NL)-3.1pt16.8%
- Liberal Democratic Party of Russia (LDPR)-1.6pt1%
+5 mais resultados
- Volume total
- € 30,1 mi
- Volume 24h
- € 2,5 mi
KALSHI2028 Democratic presidential nominee
- Jon Ossoff-1.0pt16%
- Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez16%
- Gavin Newsom13%
+45 mais resultados
- Volume total
- € 192,5 mi
- Volume 24h
- € 932,1 mil
POLYMARKETNext French Presidential Election
- Marine Le Pen+2.0pt38.4%
- Édouard Philippe25.3%
- Jean-Luc Mélenchon13.1%
+38 mais resultados
- Volume total
KALSHI2026 Midterms: Congress Balance of Power?
- Democrats sweep57.8%
- D-House, R-Senate-1.0pt29.4%
- Republicans sweep11.8%
+1 mais resultados
- Volume total
- € 13,7 mi
POLYMARKETBrazil Presidential Election
- Flávio Bolsonaro+2.2pt56.4%
- Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva-2.0pt42.6%
- Renan Santos-0.1pt1%
+16 mais resultados
KALSHI2028 U.S. Presidential Election winner?
- J.D. Vance+1.0pt23%
- Jon Ossoff12%
- Marco Rubio11%
+27 mais resultados
- Volume total
- € 58,9 mi
- Volume 24h
- Which party will win the U.S. House?
- Presidential Election Winner 2028
- Democratic Presidential Nominee 2028
- US announces end of Iranian blockade by which date?
- TX-15 House winner?
- Russia Parliamentary Election Winner
- Clarity Act (H.R.3633) signed into law in 2026?
- Will the US confirm that aliens exist by which date?
- Kansas Senate winner?
- Los Angeles Mayor winner?
- Texas Senate winner?
Perguntas frequentes
- Quais são as probabilidades atuais de The Oklahoma Scramble: Who will replace Markwayne Mullin??
- A Manifold Markets cota Kevin Hern em 75% em 18 de setembro de 2026.
- Quando The Oklahoma Scramble: Who will replace Markwayne Mullin? é resolvido?
- The Oklahoma Scramble: Who will replace Markwayne Mullin? deverá ser resolvido em 3 de janeiro de 2027.
- Como The Oklahoma Scramble: Who will replace Markwayne Mullin? é liquidado?
- A Manifold Markets liquida este mercado da seguinte forma: Resolution Criteria