Manifold MarketsSem KYCDados de resolução verificadosRazoavelmente calibradoPrevisão da comunidade atualNão 73.3%
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3
Tipo de pergunta
binary
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Play-money forecasting platform
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Atualizado há 6 horas
Desatualizado26/06/26, 18:07 UTC28/06/31, 03:59 UTC
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As part of its astronomically valued IPO, SpaceX justified its valuation by of its ownership of the more speculative xAI / Grok rather than its proven business of putting things into orbit; this market captures the failure of that bet, either via a pivot back to rocketry or the collapse of the company.
- This market resolves YES if SpaceX has an (announced or de facto) a pivot away from its own AI model, spins off its AI business, substantially collapses, or is acquired by a company that does not pursue xAI / Grok.
- This market resolves NO in five years if none of those happen -- principally if SpaceX or its successor entity has more of its revenue or capital in its own-model AI business than in rocketry, starlink, or social media, or other lines of business that aren't own-model AI.
- The hypothetical vast orbiting ring of datacenters will count as xAI if they are training SpaceX-owned models, and not if they are doing something else (training a different model, mining crypto, running Roblox servers, whatever).
- While this market has vague and subjective elements, particularly as market structures and categories may be very different in five years, it will probably be pretty clear before market close if it comes up YES; as such (1) the market may YES early but probably will not NO early, and (2) I will not trade on this market.
