Over the next five years, what percent of GitHub code will be authored by an AI agent?
TecnologiaOne-Off4a
Manifold MarketsSem KYCDados de resolução verificadosBem calibradoPrevisão da comunidade atual2030 59%Líder entre 5 opções
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5
Tipo de pergunta
multiple choice
Metodologia
Play-money forecasting platform
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Previsão
Variação 7d
0.0 pts
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Atualizado há 15 horas
Desatualizado20/05/25, 02:41 UTC1/01/31, 03:32 UTC
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To resolve, at the end of the year I will take a sample of projects with 1000+ stars that allow AI contributions.
- I will divide the number of human approved commits that had an AI author (where the AI generated the original changeset, reviews don't count) by the total number of commits.
- The year will resolve to this percentage.
- NOTE: The AI may be a number of asynchronous AI agents (Copilot, Google Jules, etc) - I'll count all clearly tool generated code if it's marked as such in git/GitHub.
- User submitted code will not count.
- If I can't accurately calculate the percentage, or can't find enough projects that meet this criteria, I'll resolve N/A. Feedback welcome on this resolution process, it may be adjusted to resolve ambiguity.
