Outcome of the 2026 US Midterm election
5.1 pts (24h)One-OffPolíticaEleiçãoPolítica dos EUAEleições de meio de mandato dos EUA 20263m
Manifold MarketsSem KYCDados de resolução verificadosBem calibradoPrevisão da comunidade atual
Democrats control Congress 69%+5.1ptLíder entre 4 opções
Democrats control Congress 69%+5.1ptPrevisores
98
Tipo de pergunta
multiple choice
Metodologia
Play-money forecasting platform
Tipo de fonte
Previsão
Variação 7d
+7.1 pts
Dados do mercado
Atualizado há 7 horas
Desatualizado4/07/23, 14:47 UTC31/01/27, 23:59 UTC
Tendências
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PredictItRegras
Update 2025-07-11 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): Resolution will be based on the Wikipedia page for the United States Congress: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/United_States_Congress.
- Independents will be counted based on which party they caucus with.
- A tie in the Senate will be resolved by the Vice President's party.
- Update 2025-11-06 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): If Republican senators vote with the Democratic bloc more than 50% of the time, they will be counted as caucusing with Democrats and considered under Democratic control.
- While Wikipedia will be the primary source, the creator will use their judgment if facts substantially diverge from Wikipedia's assessment of "control".
- Update 2025-11-13 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): The market will resolve immediately after the election is finalized based on Wikipedia's assessment of control at that time.
