Manifold MarketsSem KYCDados de resolução verificadosRazoavelmente calibradoPrevisão da comunidade atualSim 90%
Previsores
18
Tipo de pergunta
binary
Metodologia
Play-money forecasting platform
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Dados do mercado
Atualizado há 2 horas
Desatualizado6/01/26, 00:52 UTC1/01/27, 07:59 UTC
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Perguntas relacionadas para dar contexto, não uma comparação de contratos equivalentes.
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KalshiRegras
Part of Matt Yglesias' "Predictions for 2026" from his Slow Boring newsletter.
- Source: [Predictions for 2026](https://www.slowboring.com/i/181456375/predictions-for) Yglesias assigned 80% probability to this prediction.
- Original prediction: "No Supreme Court vacancy opens up" Resolution: Will resolve based on Yglesias' own assessment in his January 2027 review post.
- If he doesn't publish one, market creator will resolve based on the outcome.
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Perguntas frequentes
- Quais são as probabilidades atuais de No Supreme Court vacancy opens in 2026??
- A Manifold Markets cota Yes em 90% em 8 de setembro de 2026.
- Quando No Supreme Court vacancy opens in 2026? é resolvido?
- No Supreme Court vacancy opens in 2026? deverá ser resolvido em 1 de janeiro de 2027.
- Como No Supreme Court vacancy opens in 2026? é liquidado?
- A Manifold Markets liquida este mercado da seguinte forma: Part of Matt Yglesias' "Predictions for 2026" from his Slow Boring newsletter.