Manifold MarketsSem KYCDados de resolução verificadosRazoavelmente calibradoPrevisão da comunidade atual
@jim 74%Líder entre 4 opções
Previsores
9
Tipo de pergunta
multiple choice
Metodologia
Play-money forecasting platform
Tipo de fonte
Previsão
Variação 7d
0.0 pts
Dados do mercado
Atualizado há 10 horas
Desatualizado20/06/25, 18:55 UTC31/12/30, 23:59 UTC
Tendências
Mercados Relacionados
Perguntas relacionadas para dar contexto, não uma comparação de contratos equivalentes.
[Credit Default Swap] How many of these markets will resolve to YES?
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KalshiWill Delaware credit-intermediation employment increase YoY in 2026?
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Kalshi$LAPTOP FDV above ___ one day after launch?
PolymarketRegras
This market offers credit default swaps (CDSs) on some of the richest and most influential Manifold users.
- Each answer represents a CDS for a specific borrower or loan.
- A CDS resolves Yes if the borrower is 45 days late on a loan payment due by the end of 2030.
- If the creditor grants an extension or forgives the loan, it will not be considered late.
- “Yes”, you’re predicting that the borrower will default on at least one loan by the end of 2030.
- “No”, you’re taking the (more likely) position that they will not default by then.
Mercados abertos
Business & CorporatePOLYMARKET$LAPTOP FDV above ___ one day after launch?
- $10M+5.5pt96%
- $25M+8.5pt94%
- $50M+13.0pt87%
+4 mais resultados
- Volume total
- € 351,4 mil
- Volume 24h
- € 351,4 mil
POLYMARKETElon Musk # tweets September 7 - September 9, 2026?
- 40-64+6.0pt52%
- 65-89+24.5pt45.1%
- 90-114-2.5pt2.9%
+7 mais resultados
POLYMARKETLargest Company end of December 2026?
- NVIDIA+1.0pt78.4%
- Apple+0.6pt13.7%
- Alphabet6.9%
+5 mais resultados
POLYMARKETElon Musk # tweets September 8 - September 15, 2026?
- 180-199-1.0pt18.2%
- 200-21918.2%
- 160-179+1.0pt14.1%
+23 mais resultados
KALSHIWashington aerospace manufacturing employment average in 2026
- Above 80,000 jobs98%
- Above 81,000 jobs95%
- Above 82,000 jobs+3.0pt92%
+10 mais resultados
- Volume total
- € 183,7 mil
POLYMARKETLargest Company end of September?
- NVIDIA+0.3pt98%
- Apple-0.3pt2%
- Alphabet0%
+6 mais resultados
- Boeing commercial airplane deliveries in 2026
- Illinois nuclear electricity generation in 2026
- California FAIR Plan policies in force on September 30, 2026
- Elon Musk # of tweets in September 2026?
- 3rd Largest Company end of September?
- Variational FDV above ___ one day after launch?
- Largest IPO by market cap in 2026?
- OpenAI IPO Closing Market Cap
- Predict.fun FDV above ___ one day after launch?
- First to hit $1B FDV: ANSEM, CASHCAT, AI, or NET?
Perguntas frequentes
- Quais são as probabilidades atuais de Manifold Credit Default swaps 2030?
- A Manifold Markets cota @jim em 74% em 8 de setembro de 2026.
- Quando Manifold Credit Default swaps 2030 é resolvido?
- Manifold Credit Default swaps 2030 deverá ser resolvido em 31 de dezembro de 2030.
- Como Manifold Credit Default swaps 2030 é liquidado?
- A Manifold Markets liquida este mercado da seguinte forma: This market offers credit default swaps (CDSs) on some of the richest and most influential Manifold users.