Manifold MarketsSem KYCDados de resolução verificadosRazoavelmente calibradoPrevisão da comunidade atualNão 97%
Previsores
15
Tipo de pergunta
binary
Metodologia
Play-money forecasting platform
Tipo de fonte
Previsão
Dados do mercado
Atualizado há 15 horas
Desatualizado19/09/23, 00:37 UTC2/01/31, 07:59 UTC
Tendências
Mercados Relacionados
Perguntas relacionadas para dar contexto, não uma comparação de contratos equivalentes.
New SF Bay bridge any time through 2030
Manifold MarketsNew US $20 bills don't have Andrew Jackson on them any time through 2030
Manifold MarketsWill definitive evidence emerge that Justin Trudeau is actually Fidel Castro’s biological son any time through 2026?
Manifold MarketsWhich company has the best AI model end of September?
PolymarketWhen will Tesla and SpaceX merge?
KalshiSpaceX Starship Flight Test 14
PolymarketRegras
A human will kidnap another human in space, according to conventional earth definitions of kidnapping and the definition of space below.
- In the case of lesser potential verdicts, we will attempt to determine if the truth about what happened would have qualified as kidnapping under the laws of New York as of 2023.
- On definition of space:
- Planes flying above earth don't count unless in zero g.
- Rockets do count as long as they've launched (not sitting on the surface of Earth) whether or not they have gravity.
- Space stations count.
Mercados abertos
SpacePOLYMARKETWhich company has the best AI model end of September?
- Anthropic+1.0pt89%
- OpenAI-2.2pt9%
- Google2%
+18 mais resultados
- Volume total
- € 2,3 mi
- Volume 24h
- € 103,1 mil
LIMITLESSSpaceX (SPCX) Up or Down - Daily
- No56.5%
- Yes43.5%
- Volume total
- € 57,4 mil
- Volume 24h
- € 57,4 mil
POLYMARKETLargest IPO by market cap in 2026?
- Anthropic+0.5pt58.8%
- SpaceX-3.5pt39.2%
- OpenAI+0.1pt2.1%
+9 mais resultados
KALSHIWhen will Tesla and SpaceX merge?
- Before 2028-2.0pt63%
- Before Apr 1, 2027-1.0pt51%
- Before May 1, 2027-1.0pt49%
+8 mais resultados
KALSHIHow many launches will SpaceX have in September?
- Above 8-6.0pt84%
- Above 9-21.0pt52%
- Above 10-4.0pt18%
+8 mais resultados
- Volume total
POLYMARKETWill the Doge-1 Lunar Mission launch by which date?
- 202767%
- June 30, 202753%
- 2026+1.3pt6%
- Volume total
- € 817,9 mil
- Which company has the best AI model end of October?
- Which company has the best AI Agent end of September?
- Third-best AI Lab end of September?
- Tesla and SpaceX merger officially announced by which date?
- Will a new interstellar visitor be confirmed before 2027?
- Third-best AI Lab end of October?
- Which company has #1 AI model end of September? (Style Control On)
- AI data center in space by which date?
- Highest Grok score on Humanity’s Last Exam in 2026?
Perguntas frequentes
- Quais são as probabilidades atuais de Kidnapping in space any time through 2030?
- A Manifold Markets cota No em 97% em 8 de setembro de 2026.
- Quando Kidnapping in space any time through 2030 é resolvido?
- Kidnapping in space any time through 2030 deverá ser resolvido em 2 de janeiro de 2031.
- Como Kidnapping in space any time through 2030 é liquidado?
- A Manifold Markets liquida este mercado da seguinte forma: A human will kidnap another human in space, according to conventional earth definitions of kidnapping and the definition of space below.