Israel election: Who will be the next prime minister?
5.1 pts (24h)PolíticaOne-OffEleiçãoOriente Médio2m
Manifold MarketsSem KYCDados de resolução verificadosRazoavelmente calibradoPrevisão da comunidade atualHung Knesset (political deadlock) 52%-5.1ptLíder entre 7 opções
Previsores
167
Tipo de pergunta
multiple choice
Metodologia
Play-money forecasting platform
Tipo de fonte
Previsão
Variação 7d
+18.5 pts
Dados do mercado
Atualizado há 1 hora
Atrasado15/07/26, 18:59 UTC30/12/26, 23:59 UTC
Tendências
Mercados Relacionados
Perguntas relacionadas para dar contexto, não uma comparação de contratos equivalentes.
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KalshiRegras
Resolution criteria
- This market will resolve to the first individual who is officially sworn in as the Prime Minister of Israel by the Knesset following the next legislative election (scheduled for October 27, 2026, or sooner if a snap election is triggered beforehand).
- "Sworn In" Definition: The resolution will be determined by the first person who successfully forms a government and takes the oath of office in the Knesset.
- In the event of a rotational premiership agreement, the individual who serves as Prime Minister first will be the resolving winner.
- Hung Knesset: This option will resolve to YES if the Knesset elected in the next election fails to form a governing coalition within the legally mandated timeframe.
- A caretaker Prime Minister continuing to serve in an interim capacity during this political deadlock does not count as being sworn in for a new term.
Comparação de fontes de previsão
- Também disponível em Kalshi — Prime Minister of Israel after the 2026 election? · No one 45%
- Também disponível em Manifold Markets — Who will be the next Prime Minister of Israel? · Gadi Eisenkot 56%
- Também disponível em Limitless — Who will be the next Prime Minister of Israel after next election? · Benjamin Netanyahu 46%
- Também disponível em PredictIt — Who will be the Prime Minister of Israel after the 2026 election? · Benjamin Netanyahu 51%
