Manifold MarketsSem KYCDados de resolução verificadosBem calibradoAviso de qualidade dos dadosDados desatualizados
Dados de 16 de jul. de 2026, 08:40 UTC · política pm-quality-2
Previsão da comunidade atualMarch 13 0%Líder entre 10 opções
Previsores
29
Tipo de pergunta
multiple choice
Metodologia
Play-money forecasting platform
Tipo de fonte
Previsão
Dados do mercado
Atualizado há 10 dias
Desatualizado10/03/26, 1:011/01/27, 0:58
Tendências
0%
0%
Apenas fundos simulados, sem dinheiro realIsto não é aconselhamento financeiro
Resultado escolhido
June 301%
Comparar plataformas· Dec 31
Classificado por qualidade de mercado, depois liquidez e volume de 24h| Plataforma | Qualidade | Probabilidade | vs. referência | Volume 24h | Liquidez | Atualização | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 PolymarketMelhor no geral95% de correspondência · vinculado | Média | 37% | — | 144,9 mil € | 308,5 mil € | há 7 minutos | Abrir → |
 Futuur95% de correspondência · auto | Baixa | 30% | — | 0 € | 962,4 € | há 27 minutos | Abrir → |
| Manifold MarketsEsta página | — | 22% | — | — | — | há 10 dias |
Também disponível em Polymarket
Iran leadership change by which date?
0.5%5m
-2.5%37%
-4.0%22%
+1.0%12%
+7 mais resultados
73 • Qualidade médiaSpread amploAlta liquidezAlta ambiguidade
Volume total18,4 M €
Volume 24h144,9 mil €
POLYMARKETTambém disponível em Futuur
Iran leadership change by which date?
5m
30%
5%
4%
28 • Baixa qualidadeSpread desconhecidoBaixa liquidezMercado raso
Volume total355,1 €
Volume 24h0 €
FUTUURRegras
Each answer will resolve to "Yes" if the Supreme Leader of Iran, Mojtaba Khamenei, ceases to be the de facto leader of Iran at any point between market creation and the listed date (ET).
- Otherwise, the answer will resolve to "No".
- Mojtaba Khamenei will be considered to no longer be the de facto leader of Iran if he is removed from power, is detained, or otherwise loses his position or is prevented from acting as the de facto leader of Iran within this market's timeframe.
- An official announcement of Mojtaba Khamenei’s resignation or removal will qualify for a "Yes" resolution regardless of when the announced departure goes into effect.
- The primary resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Os dados de comparação são apenas informativos. Preços e liquidez podem variar.
Grandes negociações
$3.0k38.0%POLYMARKETIran leadership change by June 30, 2027? — YesParz1vaIhá 60 min.
POLYMARKETIran leadership change by June 30, 2027? — YesParz1vaIhá 60 min.$4.1k93.0%POLYMARKETIran leadership change by August 31? — NoMrNoItAllhá 8 h
POLYMARKETIran leadership change by August 31? — NoMrNoItAllhá 8 h$10.0k98.5%POLYMARKETIran leadership change by July 31? — Nosharrdioontem
POLYMARKETIran leadership change by July 31? — Nosharrdioontem$1.5k96.0%POLYMARKETIran leadership change by July 31? — Nononkenny90anteontem
POLYMARKETIran leadership change by July 31? — Nononkenny90anteontem$2.9k73.0%POLYMARKETIran leadership change by December 31? — NoFATMANanteontem
POLYMARKETIran leadership change by December 31? — NoFATMANanteontem$4.9k93.3%POLYMARKETIran leadership change by July 31? — NoScottyNooohá 5 dias
POLYMARKETIran leadership change by July 31? — NoScottyNooohá 5 dias$2.2k94.9%POLYMARKETIran leadership change by July 31? — NoRizzEmWithTheTismhá 6 dias
POLYMARKETIran leadership change by July 31? — NoRizzEmWithTheTismhá 6 dias$6.3k96.4%POLYMARKETIran leadership change by July 31? — NoStudentMoneyhá 10 dias
POLYMARKETIran leadership change by July 31? — NoStudentMoneyhá 10 diasTendência de volume
$188 de jul.8d de dados16 de jul.
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Each answer will resolve to "Yes" if the Supreme Leader of Iran, Mojtaba Khamenei, ceases to be the de facto leader of Iran at any point between market creation and the listed date (ET).
- Otherwise, the answer will resolve to "No".
- Mojtaba Khamenei will be considered to no longer be the de facto leader of Iran if he is removed from power, is detained, or otherwise loses his position or is prevented from acting as the de facto leader of Iran within this market's timeframe.
- An official announcement of Mojtaba Khamenei’s resignation or removal will qualify for a "Yes" resolution regardless of when the announced departure goes into effect.
- The primary resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.