Manifold MarketsSem KYCDados de resolução verificadosRazoavelmente calibradoPrevisão da comunidade atualDec 31 14%Líder entre 10 opções
Previsores
31
Tipo de pergunta
multiple choice
Metodologia
Play-money forecasting platform
Tipo de fonte
Previsão
Variação 7d
-1.0 pts
Dados do mercado
Atualizado há 10 horas
Desatualizado10/03/26, 01:01 UTC1/01/27, 00:58 UTC
Tendências
0%
0%
0%
0%
0%
0%
0%
Mercados Relacionados
Perguntas relacionadas para dar contexto, não uma comparação de contratos equivalentes.
Iran leadership change by which date?
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Manifold MarketsUS x Iran Effective Ceasefire begins by...? (2 week pause)
PolymarketUS announces end of Iranian blockade by which date?
PolymarketRegras
Each answer will resolve to "Yes" if the Supreme Leader of Iran, Mojtaba Khamenei, ceases to be the de facto leader of Iran at any point between market creation and the listed date (ET).
- Otherwise, the answer will resolve to "No".
- Mojtaba Khamenei will be considered to no longer be the de facto leader of Iran if he is removed from power, is detained, or otherwise loses his position or is prevented from acting as the de facto leader of Iran within this market's timeframe.
- An official announcement of Mojtaba Khamenei’s resignation or removal will qualify for a "Yes" resolution regardless of when the announced departure goes into effect.
- The primary resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Comparação de fontes de previsão
- Também disponível em Futuur — Iran leadership change by...? · December 31 23%
- Também disponível em Polymarket — Iran leadership change by...? · June 30, 2027 29%
Mercados abertos
Middle EastPOLYMARKETUS x Iran Effective Ceasefire begins by...? (2 week pause)
- September 30-6.0pt74%
- September 18-6.0pt69%
- September 11-10.0pt61%
+2 mais resultados
- Volume total
- € 1 mi
- Volume 24h
- € 363,6 mil
POLYMARKETStrait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31?
- No+3.0pt79.2%
- Yes-3.0pt20.8%
- Volume total
- € 9,3 mi
- Volume 24h
- € 245,6 mil
POLYMARKETPrime Minister of Israel after the next election?
- Gadi Eizenkot+2.8pt57.6%
- Benjamin Netanyahu+1.0pt28.3%
- Naftali Bennett-1.0pt7.1%
POLYMARKETUS announces end of Iranian blockade by which date?
- December 31-0.3pt49.6%
- October 31-1.0pt29.1%
- September 30-1.0pt12%
+17 mais resultados
POLYMARKETIsrael x Iran ceasefire continues through which date?
- July 18+0.3pt100%
- July 20+0.1pt100%
- July 22+0.5pt100%
+20 mais resultados
POLYMARKETKharg Island no longer under Iranian control by which date?
- December 317%
- September 30+0.1pt1%
- July 310%
+7 mais resultados
- Volume total
- Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by September 30?
- Israel closes its airspace by which date?
- Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by September 15?
- Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?
- When will traffic at the Strait of Hormuz return to normal?
- Iran-Oman Hormuz Management Agreement by which date?
- Next round of US-Iran peace talks by which date?
- Crude Oil all time high by which date?
- Al Nassr vs Abha
- Iran leadership change by which date?
Perguntas frequentes
- Quais são as probabilidades atuais de Iran leadership change by which date??
- A Manifold Markets cota Dec 31 em 14% em 9 de setembro de 2026.
- Quando Iran leadership change by which date? é resolvido?
- Iran leadership change by which date? deverá ser resolvido em 1 de janeiro de 2027.
- Como Iran leadership change by which date? é liquidado?
- A Manifold Markets liquida este mercado da seguinte forma: Each answer will resolve to "Yes" if the Supreme Leader of Iran, Mojtaba Khamenei, ceases to be the de facto leader of Iran at any point between market creation and the listed date (ET).
- Onde mais Iran leadership change by which date? está listado?
- A mesma pergunta também está listada em Futuur, Polymarket.