Manifold MarketsSem KYCDados de resolução verificadosRazoavelmente calibradoPrevisão da comunidade atualDec 31 13%Líder entre 10 opções
Previsores
31
Tipo de pergunta
multiple choice
Metodologia
Play-money forecasting platform
Tipo de fonte
Previsão
Variação 7d
-1.4 pts
Dados do mercado
Atualizado há 7 horas
Desatualizado10/03/26, 01:01 UTC1/01/27, 00:58 UTC
Tendências
Mercados Relacionados
Perguntas relacionadas para dar contexto, não uma comparação de contratos equivalentes.
Iran leadership change by which date?
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PolymarketRegras
Each answer will resolve to "Yes" if the Supreme Leader of Iran, Mojtaba Khamenei, ceases to be the de facto leader of Iran at any point between market creation and the listed date (ET).
- Otherwise, the answer will resolve to "No".
- Mojtaba Khamenei will be considered to no longer be the de facto leader of Iran if he is removed from power, is detained, or otherwise loses his position or is prevented from acting as the de facto leader of Iran within this market's timeframe.
- An official announcement of Mojtaba Khamenei’s resignation or removal will qualify for a "Yes" resolution regardless of when the announced departure goes into effect.
- The primary resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Comparação de fontes de previsão
- Também disponível em Futuur — Iran leadership change by...? · December 31 20%
- Também disponível em Polymarket — Iran leadership change by...? · June 30, 2027 32%
