In 2028, Will a >5 min video completely generated by an AI have more than 1 billion views on Youtube?
EsportesOne-OffIATecnologiaChess2aManifold MarketsSem KYCDados de resolução verificadosRazoavelmente calibradoPrevisão da comunidade atualNão 58.1%
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Atualizado há 35 minutos
26/09/23, 13:10 UTC2/01/29, 04:59 UTC
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KalshiRegras
Resolves YES if at any point before Jan 1, 2029 there is a video on Youtube more than 5 minutes long which I am more than 80% confident is completely generated by AI and which has over 1 billion views.
- To make the judgement on whether it's made by an AI I'll consider whether the technology of the time is capable of the task and obviously if the description of the video says it's made entirely by AI.
- As well as other evidence such as "behind-the-scenes" journalism, videos, etc
- The video must be made entirely based on a single prompt (not cut together or edited by a human).
- Therefore, common techniques used today such as masking an AI over an existing video would not qualify.
- The sound of the video may be human made but if it is, it must not be an integral part of its popularity (such as a music video)
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Perguntas frequentes
- Quais são as probabilidades atuais de In 2028, Will a >5 min video completely generated by an AI have more than 1 billion views on Youtube??
- A Manifold Markets cota No em 58% em 8 de setembro de 2026.
- Quando In 2028, Will a >5 min video completely generated by an AI have more than 1 billion views on Youtube? é resolvido?
- In 2028, Will a >5 min video completely generated by an AI have more than 1 billion views on Youtube? deverá ser resolvido em 2 de janeiro de 2029.
- Como In 2028, Will a >5 min video completely generated by an AI have more than 1 billion views on Youtube? é liquidado?
- A Manifold Markets liquida este mercado da seguinte forma: Resolves YES if at any point before Jan 1, 2029 there is a video on Youtube more than 5 minutes long which I am more than 80% confident is completely generated by AI and which has over 1 billion views.