Will Manifold think Trump made a serious attempt to remain in power at the end of his term?
Política dos EUAOne-Off2aManifold MarketsSem KYCDados de resolução verificadosRazoavelmente calibradoPrevisão da comunidade atualSim 69.3%
Previsores
40
Tipo de pergunta
binary
Metodologia
Play-money forecasting platform
Tipo de fonte
Previsão
Dados do mercado
Atualizado há 22 minutos
26/01/24, 19:04 UTC2/02/29, 04:59 UTC
Tendências
Mercados Relacionados
Perguntas relacionadas para dar contexto, não uma comparação de contratos equivalentes.
Will Trump make a serious attempt to remain in power after his term?
Manifold MarketsIn 2050, who will think a Trump assassination attempt was a false flag? [Resolves to %]
Manifold MarketsWill Putin remain in power if Crimea returns to Ukraine?
Manifold MarketsWill Texas Attempt to Split into more than one state in a serious attempt before 2040?
Manifold MarketsFed Decision in October?
Polymarket2026 Midterms: Congress Balance of Power?
KalshiRegras
The attempt does not have to be successful, but it needs to involve some effort and political capital; not just a throwaway comment here and there.
- The January 6th shenanigans and constant accusations of voter fraud last time were severe enough to count, since the first involved violence and widespread condemnation, and the latter has cost him the trust of most powerful institutions.
- This resolves to a poll of the Manifold community.
- Moderators get 5 votes each, everyone else gets 1 vote.
- Voters can interpret "serious attempt" in any reasonable way that matches with the above paragraph.
- Resolves N/A if he dies before the last year of his term, and he has not already done something that would qualify.