Will Manifold think Trump made a serious attempt to remain in power at the end of his term?
US PoliticsOne-Off2a
Manifold MarketsSem KYCDados de resolução verificadosRazoavelmente calibradoPrevisão da comunidade atual
Sim 69%
Previsores
39
Tipo de pergunta
binary
Metodologia
Play-money forecasting platform
Tipo de fonte
Previsão
Dados do mercado
Atualizado há 15 horas
Desatualizado26/01/24, 19:04 UTC2/02/29, 04:59 UTC
Tendências
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Regras
The attempt does not have to be successful, but it needs to involve some effort and political capital; not just a throwaway comment here and there.
- The January 6th shenanigans and constant accusations of voter fraud last time were severe enough to count, since the first involved violence and widespread condemnation, and the latter has cost him the trust of most powerful institutions.
- This resolves to a poll of the Manifold community.
- Moderators get 5 votes each, everyone else gets 1 vote.
- Voters can interpret "serious attempt" in any reasonable way that matches with the above paragraph.
- Resolves N/A if he dies before the last year of his term, and he has not already done something that would qualify.
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Perguntas frequentes
- Quais são as probabilidades atuais de Will Manifold think Trump made a serious attempt to remain in power at the end of his term??
- A Manifold Markets cota Yes em 69% em 8 de setembro de 2026.
- Quando Will Manifold think Trump made a serious attempt to remain in power at the end of his term? é resolvido?
- Will Manifold think Trump made a serious attempt to remain in power at the end of his term? deverá ser resolvido em 2 de fevereiro de 2029.
- Como Will Manifold think Trump made a serious attempt to remain in power at the end of his term? é liquidado?
- A Manifold Markets liquida este mercado da seguinte forma: The attempt does not have to be successful, but it needs to involve some effort and political capital; not just a throwaway comment here and there.