Quais são as probabilidades atuais de If Trump dies while in office, will the market go up or go down??

A Manifold Markets cota No em 55.1% em 26 de outubro de 2026.

If Trump dies while in office, will the market go up or go down?

Manifold MarketsSem KYCDados de resolução verificadosRazoavelmente calibrado

Aviso de qualidade dos dadosDados desatualizados

Dados de 26 de out. de 2026, 07:45 UTC · política pm-quality-4

Previsão da comunidade atual

Não 55.1%

Previsores

Tipo de pergunta

binary

Metodologia

Play-money forecasting platform

Tipo de fonte

Previsão

Dados do mercado

Atualizado ontem

Desatualizado

20/04/25, 22:39 UTC19/01/29, 23:59 UTC

Tendências

Resultado24hProbabilidade

Regras

YES=UP, NO=Down

Resolution criteria:
Resolves "Yes" if, following the death (any cause) of President Donald Trump while in office, the S&P 500 Index closes higher on the first full trading day after the announcement of his death compared to its closing value on the last full trading day before the announcement.
Resolves "No" if the S&P 500 Index closes lower.
Resolves "N/A" if Trump finishes his second term.