If Republicans keep the House in 2026, will the House impeach a Cabinet member before January 3, 2029?
PolíticaOne-OffPolítica dos EUA2a
Manifold MarketsSem KYCDados de resolução verificadosRazoavelmente calibradoPrevisão da comunidade atualNão 96%
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Atualizado há 1 hora
Atrasado7/10/26, 02:13 UTC3/01/29, 17:00 UTC
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Condition: Republicans win a majority of seats in the U.S. House of Representatives in the November 3, 2026 elections (at least 218 seats won by Republican Party candidates, counting delegations as certified; independents count for neither party).
- If Democrats or no party win a majority, this market resolves N/A. Resolves YES if the U.S. House adopts at least one article of impeachment against a sitting or former Cabinet-level official (the Vice President, the head of an executive department, or another official with Cabinet rank) between January 3, 2027 and January 3, 2029 (inclusive).
- Impeaching the President does not count.
- Resolves NO otherwise.
- This is one half of a conditional pair; its twin asks the same question if Democrats win the House.
