If Democrats win the House in 2026, will Trump's approval rating be 40% or higher on January 1, 2028?
PolíticaOne-OffPolítica dos EUA1aManifold MarketsSem KYCDados de resolução verificadosRazoavelmente calibradoPrevisão da comunidade atualNão 76%
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3
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binary
Metodologia
Play-money forecasting platform
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Dados do mercado
Atualizado há 7 horas
Desatualizado7/10/26, 02:14 UTC2/01/28, 17:00 UTC
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Condition: Democrats win a majority of seats in the U.S. House of Representatives in the November 3, 2026 elections (at least 218 seats won by Democratic Party candidates, counting delegations as certified; independents count for neither party).
- If Republicans or no party win a majority, this market resolves N/A. Resolves YES if VoteHub's polling average of Donald Trump's job approval is 40.0% or higher for January 1, 2028 (the value VoteHub shows for that date).
- If VoteHub's average is unavailable, uses the RealClearPolling average instead.
- Resolves NO otherwise, and N/A if Trump is not President on that date.
- This is one half of a conditional pair; its twin asks the same question if Republicans keep the House.
