Quais são as probabilidades atuais de When will my laptop degrade??

A Manifold Markets cota 2029 or earlier em 56.3% em 28 de outubro de 2026.

Quando When will my laptop degrade? é resolvido?

When will my laptop degrade? deverá ser resolvido em 5 de janeiro de 2030.

Manifold MarketsSem KYCDados de resolução verificadosRazoavelmente calibrado

Previsão da comunidade atual

2029 or earlier 56.3%

Líder entre 5 opções

Previsores

Tipo de pergunta

multiple choice

Metodologia

Play-money forecasting platform

Tipo de fonte

Previsão

Variação 7d

0.0 pts

Dados do mercado

Atualizado há 10 horas

Desatualizado

26/10/25, 15:01 UTC5/01/30, 14:18 UTC

Tendências

Resultado24hProbabilidade

Regras

Resolves YES if I notice my laptop's hardware performance has degraded so much that it significantly impacts my usage.

Resolves NO if the year passes without those issues.
resolves NA if I stop using my laptop but I still judge it to be in good condition.
Not sure how I should resolve in case of theft, loss, or damage clearly unrelated to age (e.g. falling from a building).
Currently leaning towards NA, but will announce in a comment if this changes.
Examples of things that would make it resolve YES: