Manifold MarketsSem KYCDados de resolução verificadosRazoavelmente calibradoPrevisão da comunidade atualCard does not launch before end of 2026. 94.7%Líder entre 7 opções
Previsores
13
Tipo de pergunta
multiple choice
Metodologia
Play-money forecasting platform
Tipo de fonte
Previsão
Variação 7d
0.0 pts
Dados do mercado
Atualizado há 8 horas
Desatualizado26/09/25, 04:46 UTC31/12/27, 02:45 UTC
Tendências
Mercados Relacionados
Perguntas relacionadas para dar contexto, não uma comparação de contratos equivalentes.
Will America.gov suffer a data breach by the end of 2027?
Manifold MarketsWill @ManiFed or @ManiFedTrading experience any sort of data breach before 2027?
Manifold MarketsWill a criminal investigation into OpenAI over the Hugging Face breach be publicly confirmed before 2028?
Manifold MarketsWill ICJ find Israel in breach of the Genocide Convention?
Manifold MarketsBitcoin price at the end of 2026
KalshiBTC price on Oct 30, 2026 at 5pm EDT?
KalshiRegras
The UK Government is expected to announce Brit a new, compulsory, Digital ID card for all citizens next month.
- How long will it be before the system suffers a 'significant' data breach/leak?
- Resolution criteria
- Clock starts at 00:00 UK time on the date the UK government declares nationwide “full launch” (general availability) of the digital ID scheme commonly referred to as “BritCard,” as evidenced by an official GOV.UK announcement or ministerial statement (pilots/betas/limited rollouts do not start the clock).
- If no full launch occurs by 23:59 UK time on 31 Dec 2026, “Card does not launch before end of 2026” resolves Yes.
- “Significant data breach” means a personal data breach under UK GDPR affecting data held by the BritCard platform or its contracted processors (including any GOV.UK One Login component used by the scheme) that is publicly confirmed by: (1) a UK government department or minister on GOV.UK, or (2) the Information Commissioner’s Office (ICO).
