What stories/media will have a counterfactually positive impact on me in the next month? (Read description)
TecnologiaOne-Off1dManifold MarketsSem KYCDados de resolução verificadosRazoavelmente calibradoPrevisão da comunidade atualsignalis 78.7%Líder entre 34 opções
Previsores
7
Tipo de pergunta
multiple choice
Metodologia
Play-money forecasting platform
Tipo de fonte
Previsão
Variação 7d
0.0 pts
Dados do mercado
Atualizado há 15 horas
Desatualizado10/08/26, 16:38 UTC10/09/26, 16:38 UTC
Tendências
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Resolves to my subjective probability of it providing net benefit to my overall goals in expectation in the counterfactual to [the counterfactual where i don't experience it] where the answer is watched at a random time during times where i would have counterfactually have chosen to experience similar media after resolution time with a uniform distribution between Aug 10 and Sep 8 inclusive.
- The duration is important here, since the counterfactual would fill up the time with other stories of the same duration.
- I estimate sum of (probabilities × time spent) = 50-150 hours (total amount of time i will likely spend on these).
- The similar clause is because different times call for different stories.
- Resolution will occur at the resolution date.
- I will N/A all answers that I do not experience before the resolution date.
Mercados abertos
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- $76,500 or above99%
- $76,250 or above99%
+77 mais resultados
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- € 1,3 mi
- Volume 24h
- € 1,3 mi
KALSHIBTC price on Sep 8, 2026 at 2pm EDT?
- $78,400 or above99%
- $78,300 or above99%
- $78,200 or above99%
+97 mais resultados
- Volume total
- € 1,1 mi
- Volume 24h
- € 802,6 mil
KALSHIBTC 15 min · $78,547.84 target
- Yes60%
- No40%
- Volume total
- € 736,5 mil
- Volume 24h
- € 585,6 mil
KALSHIBTC price on Sep 11, 2026 at 5pm EDT?
- $72,500 or above+2.0pt99%
- $72,000 or above+3.0pt99%
- $69,500 or above+1.0pt98%
+47 mais resultados
- Volume total
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- 200-219+8.0pt22.9%
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- 88° to 89°+9.0pt37%
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Perguntas frequentes
- Quais são as probabilidades atuais de What stories/media will have a counterfactually positive impact on me in the next month? (Read description)?
- A Manifold Markets cota signalis em 79% em 8 de setembro de 2026.
- Quando What stories/media will have a counterfactually positive impact on me in the next month? (Read description) é resolvido?
- What stories/media will have a counterfactually positive impact on me in the next month? (Read description) deverá ser resolvido em 10 de setembro de 2026.
- Como What stories/media will have a counterfactually positive impact on me in the next month? (Read description) é liquidado?
- A Manifold Markets liquida este mercado da seguinte forma: Resolves to my subjective probability of it providing net benefit to my overall goals in expectation in the counterfactual to [the counterfactual where i don't experience it] where the answer is watched at a random time during times where i would have counterfactually have chosen to experience similar media after resolution time with a uniform distribution between Aug 10 and Sep 8 inclusive.