Manifold MarketsSem KYCDados de resolução verificadosRazoavelmente calibradoPrevisão da comunidade atualNão 69%
Previsores
28
Tipo de pergunta
binary
Metodologia
Play-money forecasting platform
Tipo de fonte
Previsão
Dados do mercado
Atualizado há 23 horas
Desatualizado22/10/26, 21:06 UTC31/12/28, 22:02 UTC
Tendências
Regras
Resolves according to a consensus of popular reporting at the end of 2028 (or earlier, if this consensus arises).
- If there's an open debate and reporting disagrees on the subject, or even if reporting refuses to touch this story with a 10-foot pole but most traders on here have convincing evidence supporting or rejecting this thesis, then this may resolve according to my judgment, consulting with other Manifold moderators / superusers / expert forecasters.
- I will obviously not bet on this market.
- Yes, half-siblings count.
- Resolves to the spirit of the question.
- If her ex-husband was, say, her adopted brother, but DNA tests show no relation, his would still count as well.
