Democrats gain Senate seats in 2026 midterm elections?
PolíticaOne-OffPolítica dos EUAEleiçãoEleições de meio de mandato dos EUA 20262m
Manifold MarketsSem KYCDados de resolução verificadosRazoavelmente calibradoPrevisão da comunidade atualSim 95.9%
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40
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binary
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Play-money forecasting platform
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Atualizado há 39 minutos
30/03/25, 22:01 UTC31/12/26, 23:59 UTC
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Currently the Democrats hold 47 seats in the Senate (including the two independents who caucus with them, Sanders and King).
- This resolves YES if they GAIN seats (including any independents that caucus with them, or that a media consensus views as likely to caucus with them, or predominantly aligned with the democrat party and their views).
- If there are special elections or some sort of party flips of members between now and the election, this market will still require the democrats to gain seats during the midterms.
- That is to say, let's say one republican flips to being a democrat and there are then 48 dem seats in the senate, then they will have to have 49 seats after the midterm elections.
- If there are some sort of election-rigging claims, or the senate is disbanded, or the Trump admin stops democratic senators from being seated, or some other hijinxes ensue, I will use my judgement to ensure a fair resolution.
- Thus, I will not bet in this market.
