Manifold MarketsSem KYCDados de resolução verificadosRazoavelmente calibradoPrevisão da comunidade atualNão 64.8%
Previsores
4
Tipo de pergunta
binary
Metodologia
Play-money forecasting platform
Tipo de fonte
Previsão
Dados do mercado
Atualizado há 9 horas
Desatualizado4/08/26, 18:40 UTC31/12/28, 23:59 UTC
Tendências
Mercados Relacionados
Perguntas relacionadas para dar contexto, não uma comparação de contratos equivalentes.
When will a cyberattack cause a major U.S. bank or brokerage to lose its records of customer assets?
Manifold MarketsWhen will Diddy (Sean Combs) die, of any cause?
Manifold MarketsOliver Tree cause of death
Manifold MarketsWill AI be charged with a crime before 2027?
PolymarketWill the FTC sue YouTube over account suspensions?
KalshiWill Amazon win the FTC ad surcharge lawsuit?
KalshiRegras
Resolution criteria
- This market resolves to YES if, at any point before January 1, 2029, a single cyberattack or single coordinated cyberattack campaign is estimated to have caused $30 billion (USD) or more in total damages or economic losses.
- Otherwise, this market resolves to NO.
- Definition of a "Cyberattack": The incident must be a malicious, intentional intrusion, disruption, or exploitation of computer systems, networks, or operational technology by a threat actor (such as ransomware, wiper malware, malware-led supply chain compromises, or state-sponsored infrastructure attacks).
- Non-malicious IT failures, accidental software updates, or hardware malfunctions (e.g., the July 2024 CrowdStrike outage) do not qualify.
- Coordinated Campaign: A series of closely related intrusions using the same malware strain, targeting the identical vulnerability, or executed by the same threat group within a defined timeframe (analogous to the NotPetya or WannaCry campaigns of 2017) will count as a single cyberattack.
Mercados abertos
TechKALSHIBTC price on Sep 8, 2026 at 8pm EDT?
- $78,400 or above99%
- $78,300 or above99%
- $78,200 or above99%
+97 mais resultados
- Volume total
- € 944,1 mil
- Volume 24h
- € 721,8 mil
KALSHIHighest temperature in Los Angeles on Sep 8, 2026?
- 90° or above+68.0pt95.2%
- 88° to 89°-22.0pt1%
- 84° to 85°-8.0pt1%
+3 mais resultados
- Volume total
KALSHIBTC 15 min · $78,442.97 target
- No73%
- Yes27%
- Volume total
- € 620 mil
- Volume 24h
- € 536 mil
KALSHIGuyana Amazon Warriors vs Antigua And Barbuda Falcons
- Guyana Amazon Warriors+4.0pt66.3%
- Antigua And Barbuda Falcons-3.0pt33.7%
- Volume total
- € 514,9 mil
- Volume 24h
- € 496,9 mil
KALSHIWhere will it rain on Sep 8, 2026?
- New Orleans+48.0pt99%
- Houston+70.0pt99%
- Minneapolis+17.0pt99%
+19 mais resultados
- Volume total
KALSHIHighest temperature in New York City on Sep 8, 2026?
- 80° to 81°+53.0pt95.2%
- 79° or below-3.0pt1%
- 82° to 83°-44.0pt1%
+3 mais resultados
- Volume total
- BTC price on Sep 11, 2026 at 5pm EDT?
- Elon Musk # tweets September 4 - September 11, 2026?
- Elon Musk # tweets September 7 - September 9, 2026?
- BTC price on Sep 9, 2026 at 5pm EDT?
- Highest temperature in Austin on Sep 8, 2026?
- Highest temperature in Miami on Sep 8, 2026?
- When will Apple release the iPhone 18?
- Which company has the best AI model end of September?
- Bitcoin price at the end of 2026
- SpaceX (SPCX) Up or Down - Daily
- When will Apple Inc. release the iPhone 18 Pro?
Perguntas frequentes
- Quais são as probabilidades atuais de Will a cyberattack cause ≥$30B of damage before 2029??
- A Manifold Markets cota No em 65% em 8 de setembro de 2026.
- Quando Will a cyberattack cause ≥$30B of damage before 2029? é resolvido?
- Will a cyberattack cause ≥$30B of damage before 2029? deverá ser resolvido em 31 de dezembro de 2028.
- Como Will a cyberattack cause ≥$30B of damage before 2029? é liquidado?
- A Manifold Markets liquida este mercado da seguinte forma: Resolution criteria