Previsão da comunidade atual
Kamala Harris 59.1%
Previsores
18
Tipo de pergunta
multiple choice
Metodologia
Play-money forecasting platform
Tipo de fonte
Previsão
Variação 7d
0.0 pts
Dados do mercado
Atualizado há 12 horas
Desatualizado11/07/24, 22:29 UTC7/11/28, 05:59 UTC
Tendências
59.1%
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Each choice should be read as "if X is the 2024 nominee, the Democratic party's chances of winning the 2028 presidential election are Y%", where X is the choice text and Y is the choice probability.
- Conditional will be set by whoever comes out of the 2024 Democratic convention (nominally ending August 22) as the official nominee of that party.
- At that point I will N/A all other options and the nominee's option will remain open until market closes right before the 2028 election.
- Should the party's nominee change after the convention for any reason, that does not change the conditional (aka it is based on who they officially nominate, not who ends up running by the time November rolls around).
- I will not resolve the conditional based on any early virtual roll call or whatnot.
- Conditional resolves after the actual convention regardless of what happens beforehand.
Mercados abertos
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Perguntas frequentes
- Quais são as probabilidades atuais de Conditional on their 2024 nominee, will the Democratic candidate for president win in 2028??
- A Manifold Markets cota Kamala Harris em 59% em 8 de setembro de 2026.
- Quando Conditional on their 2024 nominee, will the Democratic candidate for president win in 2028? é resolvido?
- Conditional on their 2024 nominee, will the Democratic candidate for president win in 2028? deverá ser resolvido em 7 de novembro de 2028.
- Como Conditional on their 2024 nominee, will the Democratic candidate for president win in 2028? é liquidado?
- A Manifold Markets liquida este mercado da seguinte forma: Each choice should be read as "if X is the 2024 nominee, the Democratic party's chances of winning the 2028 presidential election are Y%", where X is the choice text and Y is the choice probability.