Quais são as probabilidades atuais de Chris Luxon NZ Prime Minister on 1 Feb 2027??

A Manifold Markets cota No em 51% em 31 de outubro de 2026.

Quando Chris Luxon NZ Prime Minister on 1 Feb 2027? é resolvido?

Chris Luxon NZ Prime Minister on 1 Feb 2027? deverá ser resolvido em 1 de fevereiro de 2027.

A Manifold Markets liquida este mercado da seguinte forma: Resolution criteria

Manifold MarketsSem KYCDados de resolução verificadosBem calibrado

Previsão da comunidade atual

Não 51%

Previsores

Tipo de pergunta

binary

Metodologia

Play-money forecasting platform

Tipo de fonte

Previsão

Dados do mercado

Atualizado há 7 horas

Desatualizado

12/08/26, 16:29 UTC1/02/27, 23:59 UTC

Tendências

Resultado24hProbabilidade

Regras

Resolution criteria

This market resolves YES if Christopher Luxon is the Prime Minister of New Zealand on February 1, 2027.
Resolution will be determined by checking official New Zealand government sources, such as the Beehive website (https://www.beehive.govt.nz/), which lists the current Prime Minister.
Luxon was sworn into office on November 27, 2023, leading the National Party in a coalition government.
The last legal date for the next general election is 19 December 2026, meaning a new Prime Minister could potentially take office between now and February 1, 2027 if an election is held and a different party wins.
Opinion polls show that Luxon's lack of popularity has deepened over his first 18 months in office, though recent polling suggests some stabilization.