Manifold MarketsSem KYCDados de resolução verificadosRazoavelmente calibradoPrevisão da comunidade atual2030-12-31 68.7%Líder entre 4 opções
Previsores
4
Tipo de pergunta
multiple choice
Metodologia
Play-money forecasting platform
Tipo de fonte
Previsão
Variação 7d
+1.2 pts
Dados do mercado
Atualizado há 2 horas
Desatualizado26/08/26, 00:59 UTC31/12/30, 23:59 UTC
Tendências
Mercados Relacionados
Perguntas relacionadas para dar contexto, não uma comparação de contratos equivalentes.
By when will an amateur rocket reach orbit?
Manifold MarketsWill someone die aboard a SpaceX rocket before the end of 2030?
Manifold MarketsWill NASA's Europa Clipper confirm liquid water under the ice?
Manifold MarketsWhen will Rocket Lab Corporation launch Neutron
KalshiWhat will Rocket Lab USA, Inc. (RKLB) hit in September 2026?
PolymarketAnother Blue Origin rocket explodes by Oct 31?
PolymarketRegras
On or before the dates in question.
Mercados abertos
SpacePOLYMARKETWhich company has the best AI model end of September?
- Anthropic+1.0pt89%
- OpenAI-2.2pt9%
- Google2%
+18 mais resultados
- Volume total
- € 2,3 mi
- Volume 24h
- € 103,1 mil
LIMITLESSSpaceX (SPCX) Up or Down - Daily
- No56.5%
- Yes43.5%
- Volume total
- € 57,4 mil
- Volume 24h
- € 57,4 mil
POLYMARKETLargest IPO by market cap in 2026?
- Anthropic+0.5pt58.8%
- SpaceX-3.5pt39.2%
- OpenAI+0.1pt2.1%
+9 mais resultados
KALSHIWhen will Tesla and SpaceX merge?
- Before 2028-2.0pt63%
- Before Apr 1, 2027-1.0pt51%
- Before May 1, 2027-1.0pt49%
+8 mais resultados
KALSHIHow many launches will SpaceX have in September?
- Above 8-6.0pt84%
- Above 9-21.0pt52%
- Above 10-4.0pt18%
+8 mais resultados
- Volume total
POLYMARKETWill the Doge-1 Lunar Mission launch by which date?
- 202767%
- June 30, 202753%
- 2026+1.3pt6%
- Volume total
- € 817,9 mil
- Which company has the best AI model end of October?
- Which company has the best AI Agent end of September?
- Third-best AI Lab end of September?
- Tesla and SpaceX merger officially announced by which date?
- Will a new interstellar visitor be confirmed before 2027?
- Third-best AI Lab end of October?
- Which company has #1 AI model end of September? (Style Control On)
- AI data center in space by which date?
- Highest Grok score on Humanity’s Last Exam in 2026?
Perguntas frequentes
- Quais são as probabilidades atuais de By when will an amateur liquid rocket break the Karman Line??
- A Manifold Markets cota 2030-12-31 em 69% em 8 de setembro de 2026.
- Quando By when will an amateur liquid rocket break the Karman Line? é resolvido?
- By when will an amateur liquid rocket break the Karman Line? deverá ser resolvido em 31 de dezembro de 2030.
- Como By when will an amateur liquid rocket break the Karman Line? é liquidado?
- A Manifold Markets liquida este mercado da seguinte forma: On or before the dates in question.