Manifold MarketsSem KYCDados de resolução verificadosRazoavelmente calibradoPrevisão da comunidade atualBefore 2036 69.2%Líder entre 10 opções
Previsores
6
Tipo de pergunta
multiple choice
Metodologia
Play-money forecasting platform
Tipo de fonte
Previsão
Variação 7d
0.0 pts
Dados do mercado
Atualizado há 16 horas
Desatualizado6/08/26, 01:39 UTC1/01/36, 07:59 UTC
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Resolves YES if an autonomous robot electrician exists and can complete most residential service tasks.
- Also resolves YES if it's a team of robots and not a single robot.
- Evaluating the 50% threshold is going to be tricky - the ideal would be a company that has robot electricians and reports their success rate, but that seems unlikely.
- Some other options: - I ask service electricians to make a list their most common tasks, resolves YES if a robot can do those specific tasks (regardless of actual deployment) - No one is hiring human electricians any more - There's a sizable group of people depending on robot electricians for almost everything (even if we don't have a task success rate breakdown)
- Note that construction/remodeling work is not part of the question.
- Also note that I know almost nothing about electrical work, if this question is ill-posed in some way I may edit or resolve it N/A.
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Perguntas frequentes
- Quais são as probabilidades atuais de By what year will there be fully autonomous robotic electricians??
- A Manifold Markets cota Before 2036 em 69% em 8 de setembro de 2026.
- Quando By what year will there be fully autonomous robotic electricians? é resolvido?
- By what year will there be fully autonomous robotic electricians? deverá ser resolvido em 1 de janeiro de 2036.
- Como By what year will there be fully autonomous robotic electricians? é liquidado?
- A Manifold Markets liquida este mercado da seguinte forma: Resolves YES if an autonomous robot electrician exists and can complete most residential service tasks.