Manifold MarketsSem KYCDados de resolução verificadosRazoavelmente calibradoPrevisão da comunidade atualNão 95.5%
Previsores
13
Tipo de pergunta
binary
Metodologia
Play-money forecasting platform
Tipo de fonte
Previsão
Dados do mercado
Atualizado há 12 horas
Desatualizado6/07/25, 03:51 UTC31/01/27, 23:59 UTC
Tendências
Mercados Relacionados
Perguntas relacionadas para dar contexto, não uma comparação de contratos equivalentes.
Will any America Party candidate be on a federal or gubernatorial ballot before 2027?
KalshiWhat will be true of Elon Musk’s “America Party” by the end of 2026?
Manifold MarketsAny of Elon Musk's America Party's candidates wins a seat in Congress in 2026
Manifold MarketsAny of Elon Musk's America Party's candidates wins 10%+ of vote for a Congressional seat in 2026?
Manifold MarketsWill the America Party contest the 2028 U.S. presidential election?
KalshiWill any independent or 3rd party candidate win a House or Senate race in 2026?
KalshiRegras
Resolution criteria
- This market resolves to "YES" if a candidate from the America Party wins any election in the 2026 U.S. midterms at the federal, state, or local level.
- A "NO" resolution occurs if no America Party candidate secures such a position.
- If Elon Musk's political party operates under a different name but meets the same criteria, the market will still resolve to "YES." However, if Musk assumes control of an existing party, such as the Reform or Forward Party, without establishing a new party, this will not count towards a "YES" resolution.
Mercados abertos
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Perguntas frequentes
- Quais são as probabilidades atuais de America party candidate wins any election in 2026??
- A Manifold Markets cota No em 96% em 8 de setembro de 2026.
- Quando America party candidate wins any election in 2026? é resolvido?
- America party candidate wins any election in 2026? deverá ser resolvido em 31 de janeiro de 2027.
- Como America party candidate wins any election in 2026? é liquidado?
- A Manifold Markets liquida este mercado da seguinte forma: Resolution criteria