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  3. 2026 US Senate Election: will the party of the winner of this state's senate seat go on to win senate control?
Manifold Markets

2026 US Senate Election: will the party of the winner of this state's senate seat go on to win senate control?

One-OffPolíticaUS PoliticsEleição4m
Manifold MarketsManifold MarketsSem KYC
Previsão da comunidade atual
Manifold Markets
Texas 63.5%
Líder entre 10 opções
Previsores

4

Tipo de pergunta

multiple choice

Metodologia

Play-money forecasting platform

Tipo de fonte

Previsão

Dados do mercado

Atualizado há 9 dias

Desatualizado
1/06/26, 8:484/11/26, 23:59

Tendências

Resultado24hProbabilidade

Resultado escolhido

Texas64%

Regras

Each answer the resolves independently from each other.

Manifold Markets
  • Resolves YES for a state, if the party who wins that senate seat controls the 2026 US Senate.
  • In the case of a 50-50 tie, this is a republican controlled senate, because of the vice president's tie breaking vote.
  • Example: if democrats win Alaska while republicans win Texas, with the end result being a republican controlled senate, then Alaska resolves NO while Texas resolves YES.
  • You may add new answers on this market, but do note that non competitive states are discouraged because they will just be equivalent to the default "which party wins senate control" market.
  • Update 2026-06-01 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): For independent candidates (e.g., Nebraska's Dan Osborn):

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Regras

Each answer the resolves independently from each other.

Manifold Markets
  • Resolves YES for a state, if the party who wins that senate seat controls the 2026 US Senate.
  • In the case of a 50-50 tie, this is a republican controlled senate, because of the vice president's tie breaking vote.
  • Example: if democrats win Alaska while republicans win Texas, with the end result being a republican controlled senate, then Alaska resolves NO while Texas resolves YES.
  • You may add new answers on this market, but do note that non competitive states are discouraged because they will just be equivalent to the default "which party wins senate control" market.
  • Update 2026-06-01 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): For independent candidates (e.g., Nebraska's Dan Osborn):