2026 political predictions (add your own)
PolíticaOne-OffPolítica dos EUAEuropaCrime e justiçaIAGeopolítica2mManifold MarketsSem KYCDados de resolução verificadosRazoavelmente calibradoPrevisão da comunidade atualThe leader of a country will die 100%Líder entre 13 opções
Previsores
16
Tipo de pergunta
multiple choice
Metodologia
Play-money forecasting platform
Tipo de fonte
Previsão
Variação 7d
0.0 pts
Dados do mercado
Atualizado há 6 horas
Desatualizado29/05/26, 23:49 UTC31/12/26, 23:59 UTC
Tendências
Mercados Relacionados
Perguntas relacionadas para dar contexto, não uma comparação de contratos equivalentes.
What will happen in the 2026 US Midterm Elections (add your own!)
Manifold MarketsWhich cryptocurrencies will have obviously failed by the end of 2026? (Add your own)
Manifold MarketsWhat games will be in the Platinum New Releases section of the Steam Best of 2026? (Add your own answers)
Manifold MarketsWhat will be true about the Francis Scott Key bridge disaster by 2025? (Add Your Own Answer)
Manifold MarketsNothing Ever Happens: 2026
PolymarketNothing Ever Happens 2026
Manifold MarketsRegras
Resolution criteria
- Each option resolves independently to YES or NO based on events starting from today (30th May) through to the end of the year.
- the named outcome: Resolves YES if a head of state or head of government (e.g., President, Prime Minister, Ruling Monarch, Supreme Leader) of a sovereign nation dies while in office during 2026.
- A figure in the Epstein files is prosecuted for wrongdoing: Resolves YES if any individual named in the official documents released is formally arrested, indicted, or criminally charged in connection with the files.
- the named outcome: Resolves YES if a serving president of any sovereign nation is killed in a violent, politically motivated attack.
- the named outcome: Resolves YES if a criminal trial formally begins proceedings in the International Criminal Court during 2026.
