Manifold MarketsSem KYCDados de resolução verificadosRazoavelmente calibradoPrevisão da comunidade atualOther 45.2%Líder entre 12 opções
Previsores
21
Tipo de pergunta
multiple choice
Metodologia
Play-money forecasting platform
Tipo de fonte
Previsão
Variação 7d
0.0 pts
Dados do mercado
Atualizado há 15 horas
Desatualizado20/05/26, 15:40 UTC31/12/26, 23:59 UTC
Tendências
0.5%
0.4%
0.4%
0.4%
Mercados Relacionados
Perguntas relacionadas para dar contexto, não uma comparação de contratos equivalentes.
Regras
Resolves based on the consensus/best estimate of the suspected case count at the end of the epidemic, probably using numbers released by the WHO or on the Wikipedia page, unless there's good reason to believe that they have stopped updating these numbers reliably (this is probably unlikely).
- https://www.who.int/emergencies/disease-outbreak-news
- https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2026_Ituri_Province_Ebola_epidemic
- If the epidemic expands into a pandemic or continues into 2027, the market will be extended as necessary.
- The "Other" category means any case counts larger than the current buckets.
- I may add more higher buckets from the "Other" category as necessary (if you're new to Manifold, don't worry, if you bet on Other, your shares will automatically be transferred onto any new buckets split off, this is fine and normal).
Mercados abertos
Health & Medicine
POLYMARKETHantavirus pandemic in 2026?
- No-0.1pt97%
- Yes+0.1pt3%
- Volume total
- € 15,6 mi
- Volume 24h
- € 18,3 mil
KALSHIWill WHO declare Hantavirus a Public Health Emergency of International Concern this Year?
- No96%
- Yes+1.9pt4%
- Volume total
- € 1,6 mi
- Volume 24h
- € 5,2 mil
KALSHIWhen will Intellia Therapeutics submit a BLA for Lonvo-z?
- before October+64.0pt98%
- before 2027+22.0pt98%
- before December+30.0pt98%
+3 mais resultados
POLYMARKETFDA approves skin cancer vaccine by which date?
- December 31,+6.0pt65%
- September+2.0pt41%
- June28%
- Volume total
POLYMARKETNew pandemic in 2026?
- No+0.5pt94%
- Yes-0.5pt6%
- Volume total
- € 916 mil
- Volume 24h
- € 1,5 mil
KALSHIMeasles cases in 2026?
- Above 300099%
- Above 400097%
- Above 6000-2.0pt57%
+2 mais resultados
- Volume total
- € 863,6 mil
- Volume 24h
- € 1 mil
- Ebola pandemic in 2026?
- Will 3 mg THC beverages be federally legal to sell?
- Ebola pandemic in 2026?
- Measles cases in U.S. in 2026?
- FDA decision: Bepirovirsen by GlaxoSmithKline (in 2026)
- When will Heidi Overton be confirmed as Commissioner of the FDA?
- What will the average number of measles cases be during Trump's term?
- Will the FDA approve any psychedelic substance for medical use this year?
- When will the FDA reclassify BPC-157 to Category 1?
- FDA decision: Saroglitazar by Zydus Therapeutics (in 2026)
- Will the FDA approve CagriSema?
Perguntas frequentes
- Quais são as probabilidades atuais de 2026 Ebola epidemic case count??
- A Manifold Markets cota Other em 45% em 8 de setembro de 2026.
- Quando 2026 Ebola epidemic case count? é resolvido?
- 2026 Ebola epidemic case count? deverá ser resolvido em 31 de dezembro de 2026.
- Como 2026 Ebola epidemic case count? é liquidado?
- A Manifold Markets liquida este mercado da seguinte forma: Resolves based on the consensus/best estimate of the suspected case count at the end of the epidemic, probably using numbers released by the WHO or on the Wikipedia page, unless there's good reason to believe that they have stopped updating these numbers reliably (this is probably unlikely).