Will the Supreme Court hear a 3rd Amendment case before Trump's term ends?
One-OffUS PoliticsGeopolítica2a
KalshiVerificar disponibilidadeKYC obrigatório2% de taxaDados de resolução verificadosRazoavelmente calibradoProbabilidade implícita atual
Não 93%
Qualidade do mercado
≤49 / 100
Baixa qualidadeVolume 24h
—
Liquidez
3,9 mil €
Liquidez médiaCompra / Venda
6.9% / 9.9%
Spread
3.0 pt
Spread moderadoDados do mercado
Atualizado há 3 minutos
18/07/25, 14:00 UTC20/01/29, 15:00 UTC
Tendências
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Manifold MarketsRegras
If the Supreme Court grants a writ of certiorari to any 3rd Amendment case before Jan 20, 2029, then the market resolves to Yes.
Liquida via:Supreme Court
- The case must meet the following requirements: (1) The petition for certiorari explicitly raises a claim or question under the Third Amendment to the United States Constitution as a question presented; OR (2) The lower court decision being appealed explicitly addressed a Third Amendment claim on the merits; OR (3) The Supreme Court's order granting certiorari explicitly identifies a Third Amendment issue as a question for review.
- For the avoidance of doubt: A case where the Third Amendment is mentioned only in passing, in dicta, or as part of a general constitutional analysis without being a distinct claim SHALL NOT satisfy the Payout Criterion A case where the Third Amendment is raised only in amicus briefs but not by the parties SHALL NOT satisfy the Payout Criterion.
- Examples that WOULD resolve to Yes: the Court grants cert in a case where a homeowner challenges military housing requirements under the Third Amendment; the Court grants cert in a case where the question presented is "Whether police officers qualify as 'soldiers' under the Third Amendment”; the Court grants cert where a lower court ruled on the scope of Third Amendment protections and that ruling is being appealed.
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Perguntas frequentes
- Quais são as probabilidades atuais de Will the Supreme Court hear a 3rd Amendment case before Trump's term ends??
- A Kalshi cota No em 93% em 8 de setembro de 2026.
- Quando Will the Supreme Court hear a 3rd Amendment case before Trump's term ends? é resolvido?
- Will the Supreme Court hear a 3rd Amendment case before Trump's term ends? deverá ser resolvido em 20 de janeiro de 2029.
- Como Will the Supreme Court hear a 3rd Amendment case before Trump's term ends? é liquidado?
- A Kalshi liquida este mercado da seguinte forma: If the Supreme Court grants a writ of certiorari to any 3rd Amendment case before Jan 20, 2029, then the market resolves to Yes.