North Carolina early voters: party registration margin?
17.0 pts (24h)PolíticaOne-OffPolítica dos EUAEleição8d
KalshiVerificar disponibilidadeKYC obrigatórioDados de resolução verificadosBem calibradoPonto médio do livro selecionado
D+8 or more · —
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Preço registado
D+8 or more 79.5%Líder entre 8 opções
D+8 or more 79.5%Qualidade do mercado
31 / 100
Baixa qualidadeVolume 24h
189,5 €
Contratos em aberto
922,8 US$
Contratos em aberto: baixoCompra / Venda
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D+8 or moreSpread
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Dados do mercado
Atualizado há 23 minutos
24/09/26, 21:00 UTC4/11/26, 14:59 UTC
O gráfico e as variações mostram probabilidades históricas guardadas, não o livro selecionado em tempo real.
Tendências
Linha selecionada: ponto médio do livro. Outras linhas: referências guardadas, possivelmente normalizadas; as variações de 24h usam o histórico guardado.
Condições da plataforma
Fonte: Kalshi
Estas condições são informativas; as operações simuladas da CoinRithm seguem regras próprias.
- Encerramento antecipado:
- Sim
- Prazo de liquidação:
- 30m (informativo)
Profundidade de mercado · D+8 or more
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Manifold MarketsRegras
If the Democratic share minus the Republican share, in percentage points, of North Carolina early votes by party registration reported by the UF Election Lab for the 2026 general election is at least 8 at 10:00 AM ET on November 4, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.
Liquida via:University of Florida Election Lab
- The value is the Democrat figure minus the Republican figure in the "Percent" column of the "Total Voted by Party Registration" table on the North Carolina page of the UF Election Lab's 2026 Early Voting Tracker, as displayed to one decimal place at 10:00 AM ET on November 4, 2026. Total Voted includes in-person early votes and returned mail ballots. If the page is unavailable at that time, the same percentages computed from the voteddem, votedrep and voted_none values for North Carolina in the UF Election Lab's 2026 early vote data file (https://election.lab.ufl.edu/data-downloads/earlyvote/2026/US.csv) and rounded to one decimal place are used. A negative value is a Republican lead. Each range includes both of its endpoints. Updates posted after that time are not counted.
Regras de cada resultado
- D+8 or more
- If the Democratic share minus the Republican share, in percentage points, of North Carolina early votes by party registration reported by the UF Election Lab for the 2026 general election is at least 8 at 10:00 AM ET on November 4, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.
- D+6 to D+7.9
- If the Democratic share minus the Republican share, in percentage points, of North Carolina early votes by party registration reported by the UF Election Lab for the 2026 general election is between 6 and 7.9 at 10:00 AM ET on November 4, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.
- D+2 to D+3.9
- If the Democratic share minus the Republican share, in percentage points, of North Carolina early votes by party registration reported by the UF Election Lab for the 2026 general election is between 2 and 3.9 at 10:00 AM ET on November 4, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.
- D+4 to D+5.9
- If the Democratic share minus the Republican share, in percentage points, of North Carolina early votes by party registration reported by the UF Election Lab for the 2026 general election is between 4 and 5.9 at 10:00 AM ET on November 4, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.
- R+4 or more
- If the Democratic share minus the Republican share, in percentage points, of North Carolina early votes by party registration reported by the UF Election Lab for the 2026 general election is below -3.9 at 10:00 AM ET on November 4, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.
- R+2 to R+3.9
- If the Democratic share minus the Republican share, in percentage points, of North Carolina early votes by party registration reported by the UF Election Lab for the 2026 general election is between -3.9 and -2 at 10:00 AM ET on November 4, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.
- R+0.1 to R+1.9
- If the Democratic share minus the Republican share, in percentage points, of North Carolina early votes by party registration reported by the UF Election Lab for the 2026 general election is between -1.9 and -0.1 at 10:00 AM ET on November 4, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.
- D+0 to D+1.9
- If the Democratic share minus the Republican share, in percentage points, of North Carolina early votes by party registration reported by the UF Election Lab for the 2026 general election is between 0 and 1.9 at 10:00 AM ET on November 4, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.