KalshiVerificar disponibilidadeKYC obrigatório2% de taxaDados de resolução verificadosRazoavelmente calibradoAviso de qualidade dos dadosSem cotações ao vivo
Dados de 11 de set. de 2026, 12:34 UTC · política pm-quality-3
Probabilidade implícita atual
Democrats, 3+ pts 17%
Qualidade do mercado
42 / 100
Baixa qualidadeVolume 24h
—
Liquidez
2,1 mil €
Baixa liquidezCompra / Venda
10.0% / 15.0%
Spread
5.0 pt
Spread moderadoDados do mercado
Atualizado há 6 minutos
29/04/26, 14:00 UTC3/11/27, 15:00 UTC
Tendências
Mercados Relacionados
Perguntas relacionadas para dar contexto, não uma comparação de contratos equivalentes.
Regras
If the Democratic Party wins the 2026 gubernatorial election in Florida by 3 percentage points or more, then the market resolves to Yes.
- The margin of victory shall be calculated as follows based on the margin type.
- For percentage points: the vote percentage received by the Democratic Party minus the vote percentage received by the candidate/party/option that finishes immediately behind the Democratic Party if the Democratic Party wins, or the candidate/party that finishes first if the Democratic Party loses.
- Each margin range is inclusive of its lower bound and exclusive of its upper bound.
- No rounding shall be applied to the calculated margin.
- For example, for consecutive ranges of 5-6% and 6-7%, a margin of 5.99999% resolves within the 5-6% range, while a margin of exactly 6% resolves within the 6-7% range.
Mercados abertos
Politics
POLYMARKETDemocratic Presidential Nominee 2028
- Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez-0.1pt19%
- Jon Ossoff16%
- Gavin Newsom14%
+48 mais resultados
- Volume total
- € 1,1 bi
- Volume 24h
- € 1,7 mi
POLYMARKETBrazil Presidential Election
- Flávio Bolsonaro+7.2pt54.5%
- Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva-8.0pt43.6%
- Renan Santos+0.3pt2%
+16 mais resultados
POLYMARKETNext French Presidential Election
- Marine Le Pen-3.1pt35.4%
- Édouard Philippe31.3%
- Jean-Luc Mélenchon12.5%
+38 mais resultados
- Volume total
KALSHIWhat will Trump say during RNC Convention (Night 2)?
- Fraud+68.0pt99%
- Transgender+62.0pt99%
- Oil / Gas / Gasoline+54.0pt99%
+36 mais resultados
POLYMARKETRepublican Presidential Nominee 2028
- J.D. Vance50%
- Marco Rubio+0.5pt18%
- Tucker Carlson+0.1pt4%
+39 mais resultados
KALSHIWhich party will win the U.S. House?
- Democratic Party+2.0pt85.2%
- Republican Party-1.0pt14.8%
- Volume total
- € 25,8 mi
- Volume 24h
- € 470,8 mil
- Clarity Act (H.R.3633) signed into law in 2026?
- Which party will gain most seats in Russian Parliamentary Election?
- 2028 Democratic presidential nominee
- US announces end of Iranian blockade by which date?
- Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through which date?
- 2028 U.S. Presidential Election winner?
- Florida Governor winner?
- Putin out as President of Russia by which date?
- 2026 Midterms: Congress Balance of Power?
- Will the Clarity Act become law?
Perguntas frequentes
- Quais são as probabilidades atuais de Florida Governor margin of victory?
- A Kalshi cota Democrats, 3+ pts em 17% em 11 de setembro de 2026.
- Quando Florida Governor margin of victory é resolvido?
- Florida Governor margin of victory deverá ser resolvido em 3 de novembro de 2027.
- Como Florida Governor margin of victory é liquidado?
- A Kalshi liquida este mercado da seguinte forma: If the Democratic Party wins the 2026 gubernatorial election in Florida by 3 percentage points or more, then the market resolves to Yes.