Arkansas Senate margin of victory
One-OffPolíticaPolítica dos EUAEleiçãoEleições de meio de mandato dos EUA 20261a
KalshiVerificar disponibilidadeKYC obrigatórioDados de resolução verificadosBem calibradoPonto médio do livro selecionado
Cotton, 2+ pts · —
A carregar o livro selecionado…
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Preço registado
Cotton, 2+ pts 93.3%Líder entre 17 opções
Cotton, 2+ pts 93.3%Qualidade do mercado
41 / 100
Baixa qualidadeVolume 24h
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Contratos em aberto
5,5 mil US$
Contratos em aberto: médioCompra / Venda
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Cotton, 2+ ptsSpread
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Dados do mercado
Atualizado há 15 minutos
21/09/26, 14:15 UTC3/11/27, 15:00 UTC
O gráfico e as variações mostram probabilidades históricas guardadas, não o livro selecionado em tempo real.
Tendências
Linha selecionada: ponto médio do livro. Outras linhas: referências guardadas, possivelmente normalizadas; as variações de 24h usam o histórico guardado.
Condições da plataforma
Fonte: Kalshi
Estas condições são informativas; as operações simuladas da CoinRithm seguem regras próprias.
- Encerramento antecipado:
- Sim
- Prazo de liquidação:
- 30m (informativo)
Profundidade de mercado · Cotton, 2+ pts
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Mercados Relacionados
Perguntas relacionadas para dar contexto, não uma comparação de contratos equivalentes.
Regras
If the Republican Party wins the 2026 U.S. Senate election in Arkansas by 14 percentage points or more, then the market resolves to Yes.
Liquida via:Arkansas Secretary of State
- The margin of victory shall be calculated as follows based on the margin type. For percentage points: the vote percentage received by the Republican Party minus the vote percentage received by the candidate/party/option that finishes immediately behind the Republican Party if the Republican Party wins, or the candidate/party that finishes first if the Republican Party loses. Each margin range is inclusive of its lower bound and exclusive of its upper bound. No rounding shall be applied to the calculated margin. For example, for consecutive ranges of 5-6% and 6-7%, a margin of 5.99999% resolves within the 5-6% range, while a margin of exactly 6% resolves within the 6-7% range. If the Republican Party runs under multiple parties or is listed multiple times, votes attributable to the same underlying natural the Republican Party will be summed. If the Republican Party wins the election, the margin will be positive. If the Republican Party loses the election, the margin will be negative. If the Republican Party ties for first place, the margin shall be 0. For uncontested races where the Republican Party is the only candidate, the margin shall be 100 percentage points or the total number of votes cast (for raw votes).
Regras de cada resultado
- Cotton, 2+ pts
- If the Republican Party wins the 2026 U.S. Senate election in Arkansas by 2 percentage points or more, then the market resolves to Yes.
- Cotton, 4+ pts
- If the Republican Party wins the 2026 U.S. Senate election in Arkansas by 4 percentage points or more, then the market resolves to Yes.
- Cotton, 6+ pts
- If the Republican Party wins the 2026 U.S. Senate election in Arkansas by 6 percentage points or more, then the market resolves to Yes.
- Cotton, 8+ pts
- If the Republican Party wins the 2026 U.S. Senate election in Arkansas by 8 percentage points or more, then the market resolves to Yes.
- Cotton, 10+ pts
- If the Republican Party wins the 2026 U.S. Senate election in Arkansas by 10 percentage points or more, then the market resolves to Yes.
- Cotton, 12+ pts
- If the Republican Party wins the 2026 U.S. Senate election in Arkansas by 12 percentage points or more, then the market resolves to Yes.
- Cotton, 14+ pts
- If the Republican Party wins the 2026 U.S. Senate election in Arkansas by 14 percentage points or more, then the market resolves to Yes.
- Cotton, 16+ pts
- If the Republican Party wins the 2026 U.S. Senate election in Arkansas by 16 percentage points or more, then the market resolves to Yes.
- Cotton, 28+ pts
- If the Republican Party wins the 2026 U.S. Senate election in Arkansas by 28 percentage points or more, then the market resolves to Yes.
- Cotton, 18+ pts
- If the Republican Party wins the 2026 U.S. Senate election in Arkansas by 18 percentage points or more, then the market resolves to Yes.
- Cotton, 32+ pts
- If the Republican Party wins the 2026 U.S. Senate election in Arkansas by 32 percentage points or more, then the market resolves to Yes.
- Cotton, 20+ pts
- If the Republican Party wins the 2026 U.S. Senate election in Arkansas by 20 percentage points or more, then the market resolves to Yes.
- Cotton, 30+ pts
- If the Republican Party wins the 2026 U.S. Senate election in Arkansas by 30 percentage points or more, then the market resolves to Yes.
- Cotton, 26+ pts
- If the Republican Party wins the 2026 U.S. Senate election in Arkansas by 26 percentage points or more, then the market resolves to Yes.
- Cotton, 34+ pts
- If the Republican Party wins the 2026 U.S. Senate election in Arkansas by 34 percentage points or more, then the market resolves to Yes.
- Cotton, 22+ pts
- If the Republican Party wins the 2026 U.S. Senate election in Arkansas by 22 percentage points or more, then the market resolves to Yes.
- Cotton, 24+ pts
- If the Republican Party wins the 2026 U.S. Senate election in Arkansas by 24 percentage points or more, then the market resolves to Yes.
