How many Senate Republicans will lose their primary in 2026?
1.0 pts (24h)One-OffPolíticaUS PoliticsEleição3m
KalshiVerificar disponibilidadeKYC obrigatório2% de taxaDados de resolução verificadosCalibração aproximadaProbabilidade implícita atual2 69.4%Líder entre 4 opções
Qualidade do mercado
70 / 100
Qualidade médiaVolume 24h
490,9 €
Liquidez
178,7 mil €
Alta liquidezCompra / Venda
26.0% / 30.0%
Spread
4.0 pt
Spread moderadoDados do mercado
Atualizado há 19 minutos
23/01/26, 21:003/11/26, 15:00
Tendências
0%
Apenas fundos simulados, sem dinheiro realIsto não é aconselhamento financeiro
Resultado escolhido
326%
Comparar plataformas· 3
Classificado por qualidade de mercado, depois liquidez e volume de 24h| Plataforma | Qualidade | Probabilidade | vs. referência | Volume 24h | Liquidez | Atualização | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| KalshiEsta páginaMelhor no geral | Média | 26% | 0pt | 490,9 € | 178,7 mil € | há 19 minutos | |
 Polymarket80% de correspondência · verificado | Baixa | 79% | +53pt | 0 € | 10,7 mil € | há 19 minutos | Abrir → |
Também disponível em Polymarket
How many Republican House Incumbents will not win their Primary?
2.1 pts
-1.4pt79%
+4.4pt19%
-0.3pt16%
+3 mais resultados
35 • Baixa qualidadeSpread amploLiquidez média
Volume total59,6 mil €
Volume 24h0 €
POLYMARKETRegras
If the number of Republican Senate members that lose their primary in 2026 before Nov 3, 2026 is exactly 1, then the market resolves to Yes.
- To be included, candidates must:
- Be running in an election for the office they currently hold (regardless of District), for a party they are currently in, as of primary day for the seat they're contesting in in 2026; Be running for the nomination of a position whose election day is on the same date as most Congressional elections in 2026, typically an early Tuesday of November; Lose the Republican primary for that election to another candidate.
- In jurisdictions with non-partisan or "top-two" primary systems, an incumbent is not considered to have lost if they advance to the General Election ballot, regardless of their placement relative to other advancing candidates.
- For the purposes of determining eligibility, a candidate is considered to be running for the "office they currently hold" if they are seeking re-election to the same legislative body (House or Senate), regardless of changes to their specific district number or geographic constituency.
- In the event that primaries for an unexpired term (Special Election) and the next full term (General Election) are held concurrently, the Payout Criterion applies exclusively to the results of the primary for the next full term.
Os dados de comparação são apenas informativos. Preços e liquidez podem variar.
Tendência de volume
$5592 de jul.26d de dados27 de jul.
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If the number of Republican Senate members that lose their primary in 2026 before Nov 3, 2026 is exactly 1, then the market resolves to Yes.
- To be included, candidates must:
- Be running in an election for the office they currently hold (regardless of District), for a party they are currently in, as of primary day for the seat they're contesting in in 2026; Be running for the nomination of a position whose election day is on the same date as most Congressional elections in 2026, typically an early Tuesday of November; Lose the Republican primary for that election to another candidate.
- In jurisdictions with non-partisan or "top-two" primary systems, an incumbent is not considered to have lost if they advance to the General Election ballot, regardless of their placement relative to other advancing candidates.
- For the purposes of determining eligibility, a candidate is considered to be running for the "office they currently hold" if they are seeking re-election to the same legislative body (House or Senate), regardless of changes to their specific district number or geographic constituency.
- In the event that primaries for an unexpired term (Special Election) and the next full term (General Election) are held concurrently, the Payout Criterion applies exclusively to the results of the primary for the next full term.