Margin of victory in the Hungarian parliamentary election?
Política
KalshiFechadoVerificar disponibilidadeKYC obrigatório2% de taxaDados de resolução verificadosCalibração aproximadaEste mercado foi resolvido: TISZA, 12-15% (97%)
Resolvido: 19 de abr. de 2026, 01:09
Resolução verificada pelo provedor
A CoinRithm tem evidência do provedor para o vencedor e o horário de liquidação deste mercado.
Probabilidade implícita atualTISZA, 12-15% 91.5%+3.7ptLíder entre 11 opções
Qualidade do mercado
11 / 100
Baixa qualidadeVolume 24h
0 €
Liquidez
0 €
Baixa liquidezCompra / Venda
-
Dados do mercado
Atualizado há 111 dias
Desatualizado2/04/26, 19:0012/04/27, 14:00
Tendências
0.9%
6.6%
0.9%
91.5%
0%
0%
Este mercado fechou. O trading simulado só está disponível em mercados abertos.
Comparar plataformas· TISZA, 12-15%
Classificado por qualidade de mercado, depois liquidez e volume de 24h| Plataforma | Qualidade | Probabilidade | vs. referência | Volume 24h | Liquidez | Atualização | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| KalshiEsta páginaMelhor no geral | Baixa | 97% | — | 0 € | 0 € | há 111 dias | |
 PredictIt69% de correspondência · verificado | — | 99% | — | — | — | há 106 dias | Abrir → |
Também disponível em PredictIt
What will be the margin of victory in the Hungarian parliamentary election?
Fechados
+79.0pt99%
+2.0pt3%
-18.0pt2%
+7 mais resultados
Retail prediction exchange
PREDICTITRegras
If the margin of victory for TISZA in the 2026 Hungarian parliamentary election falls within 15% to 18%, inclusive of its lower bound and exclusive of its upper bound, then the market resolves to Yes.
- Note: The party list vote will be used to resolve this market.
- The margin of victory shall be calculated as follows based on the margin type.
- For percentage points: the vote percentage received by TISZA minus the vote percentage received by the candidate/party/option that finishes immediately behind TISZA if TISZA wins, or the candidate/party that finishes first if TISZA loses. For raw votes: the total votes received by TISZA minus the total votes received by the candidate/party/option that finishes immediately behind TISZA if TISZA wins, or the candidate/party/option that finishes first if TISZA loses. For electoral votes: the electoral votes received by TISZA minus the electoral votes received by the candidate/party/option with the second-most electoral votes if TISZA wins, or the electoral votes received by TISZA minus the electoral votes received by the candidate/party/option with the most electoral votes if TISZA does not.
- Each margin range is inclusive of its lower bound and exclusive of its upper bound. No rounding shall be applied to the calculated margin. For example, for consecutive ranges of 5-6% and 6-7%, a margin of 5.99999% resolves within the 5-6% range, while a margin of exactly 6% resolves within the 6-7% range. If TISZA runs under multiple parties or is listed multiple times, votes attributable to the same underlying natural TISZA will be summed.
- If TISZA wins the election, the margin will be positive. If TISZA loses the election, the margin will be negative. If TISZA ties for first place, the margin shall be 0. For uncontested races where TISZA is the only candidate, the margin shall be 100 percentage points or the total number of votes cast (for raw votes).
Os dados de comparação são apenas informativos. Preços e liquidez podem variar.
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If the margin of victory for TISZA in the 2026 Hungarian parliamentary election falls within 15% to 18%, inclusive of its lower bound and exclusive of its upper bound, then the market resolves to Yes.
- Note: The party list vote will be used to resolve this market.
- The margin of victory shall be calculated as follows based on the margin type.
- For percentage points: the vote percentage received by TISZA minus the vote percentage received by the candidate/party/option that finishes immediately behind TISZA if TISZA wins, or the candidate/party that finishes first if TISZA loses. For raw votes: the total votes received by TISZA minus the total votes received by the candidate/party/option that finishes immediately behind TISZA if TISZA wins, or the candidate/party/option that finishes first if TISZA loses. For electoral votes: the electoral votes received by TISZA minus the electoral votes received by the candidate/party/option with the second-most electoral votes if TISZA wins, or the electoral votes received by TISZA minus the electoral votes received by the candidate/party/option with the most electoral votes if TISZA does not.
- Each margin range is inclusive of its lower bound and exclusive of its upper bound. No rounding shall be applied to the calculated margin. For example, for consecutive ranges of 5-6% and 6-7%, a margin of 5.99999% resolves within the 5-6% range, while a margin of exactly 6% resolves within the 6-7% range. If TISZA runs under multiple parties or is listed multiple times, votes attributable to the same underlying natural TISZA will be summed.
- If TISZA wins the election, the margin will be positive. If TISZA loses the election, the margin will be negative. If TISZA ties for first place, the margin shall be 0. For uncontested races where TISZA is the only candidate, the margin shall be 100 percentage points or the total number of votes cast (for raw votes).