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  • Início
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  1. Mercados de Previsão
  2. Política
  3. Miguel Díaz-Canel departure announced?
Miguel Díaz-Canel departure announced?

Miguel Díaz-Canel departure announced?

12.0% (24h)One-OffPolíticaLatin America1m
KalshiKalshiVerificar disponibilidadeKYC obrigatório2% de taxa
Probabilidade implícita atual
Before August 1, 2026
Before August 1, 2026 18%-12.0%
Líder entre 5 opções
Qualidade do mercado

44 / 100

Baixa qualidade
Volume 24h

44 €

Liquidez

2,5 mil €

Liquidez média
Compra / Venda

17.0% / 22.0%

Spread

29.4%

Spread amplo
Dados do mercado

Atualizado há 5 minutos

12/05/26, 20:001/08/26, 14:00

Tendências

Resultado24hProbabilidade
Before May 1, 2026
Before May 1, 2026
0%
Before June 1, 2026
Before June 1, 2026
0%

Resultado escolhido

Before August 1, 202618%

Regras

If Miguel Díaz-Canel leaves office before May 1, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.

Kalshi
  • An announcement that the Miguel Díaz-Canel will leave the office within the next year is also encompassed by the Payout Criterion.
  • If Miguel Díaz-Canel leaves solely because they have died, the associated market will resolve and the Exchange will determine the payouts to the holders of long and short positions based upon the last traded price (prior to the death).
  • If a last traded price is not available or is not logically consistent, or if the Exchange determines at its sole discretion that the last traded prices prior to death do not represent a fair settlement value, the Outcome Review Committee will be responsible for making a binding determination of fair allocation.
  • Clarification (05/23/26): To clarify, Miguel Díaz-Canel currently holds two positions relevant to this market: First Secretary of the Communist Party of Cuba and President of Cuba.
  • For purposes of this contract, departure from either position will satisfy the Payout Criterion.

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Ativos nestes tópicos

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Regras

If Miguel Díaz-Canel leaves office before May 1, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.

Kalshi
  • An announcement that the Miguel Díaz-Canel will leave the office within the next year is also encompassed by the Payout Criterion.
  • If Miguel Díaz-Canel leaves solely because they have died, the associated market will resolve and the Exchange will determine the payouts to the holders of long and short positions based upon the last traded price (prior to the death).
  • If a last traded price is not available or is not logically consistent, or if the Exchange determines at its sole discretion that the last traded prices prior to death do not represent a fair settlement value, the Outcome Review Committee will be responsible for making a binding determination of fair allocation.
  • Clarification (05/23/26): To clarify, Miguel Díaz-Canel currently holds two positions relevant to this market: First Secretary of the Communist Party of Cuba and President of Cuba.
  • For purposes of this contract, departure from either position will satisfy the Payout Criterion.